| With the promotion of the national strategy of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the land use structure of Guangdong Province has undergone drastic changes,and a series of ecological environmental problems,such as regional water shortage,air pollution and habitat quality destruction,have brought great challenges to the construction of ecological civilization.In this study,FLUS model was used to study the quantity and spatial pattern of land use in Guangdong province in 2035 under four scenarios,and the land use evolution trends in the next 15 years and the new century were compared.In VEST model was used to predict three typical ecosystem services,including water production(supply),carbon sequestration(regulation)and habitat quality(support),under different scenarios in Guangdong province in 2035.Using Origin to draw a three-dimensional scatter diagram to visually characterize the relationship between the three services;The elastic coefficient is introduced to evaluate the response of each service type to the change of different land types.Based on this,some suggestions on adjusting land use structure are put forward to optimize the relationship between services.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)According to the natural development trend,the change trend of land use in the next15 years(2020-2035)is similar to that in the last five years(2015-2020).In most areas of the province,the encroachment of construction land on cultivated land slowed down,and the forest land showed an expanding trend.Under the restriction of ecological protection and cultivated land protection policies,the expansion rate of construction land will further slow down,the growth rate of forest land will accelerate and the decline rate of cultivated land will slow down respectively.(2)Different land use policies have a great impact on the total change and spatial pattern of water production service value.Driven by economic priority policies,the level of produced water supply increased in most regions,but at the same time,it was disadvantageous to regional carbon sequestration regulation services and habitat quality support services.The ecological protection policy is beneficial to the improvement of carbon sequestration regulation services and habitat quality support services in most areas of the province,but not conducive to the supply of water production services.The cultivated land protection policy is disadvantageous to the water supply,carbon sequestration and habitat quality services in the four regions of the province.(3)Under different policy orientation,the response of land use change to the same ecosystem services varies greatly.Under the same policy direction,the spatial differentiation pattern of the three ecosystem services is similar,but the role of water production service is opposite to the other two services.The response of the same land type to the same ecosystem service type is spatially heterogeneous,and the reason may be related to the target land type.(4)In order to guide the coordinated development of the three services,differentiated land use planning policies should be formulated according to the evolution characteristics of land use and ecosystem services in different regions and their response relationships. |
