Study On Carbon Emission Effect Of Optimization And Upgrading Of Industrial Structure In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

By 2020,the proportion of tertiary industry in all provinces and cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt except Jiangxi Province has exceeded 50%,and Jiangxi Province has also reached more than 48%.The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has achieved remarkable results and made outstanding contributions to the realization of carbon emission reduction targets.As one of the "three strategies" of China’s regional development,the Yangtze River economic belt is a huge watershed economy.There are significant differences in economic development level,industrial structure,factor endowment and environmental carrying capacity among provinces and cities along the belt,and it is facing increasingly severe pressure of carbon emission reduction.This paper takes 108 cities in the Yangtze River economic belt as the research object,and empirically analyzes the carbon emission effect of industrial structure optimization and upgrading based on the samples from 2006 to 2019.In the empirical analysis,based on the selection of indicators for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the existing literature,this paper further introduces the new evaluation index of the upgrading of employment structure on the basis of the upgrading of output structure and the rationalization of industrial structure,in order to more comprehensively reflect the carbon emission effect of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.In terms of research ideas,based on theoretical analysis,this paper uses the empirical analysis of current situation analysis,two-way fixed effect model and spatial Dobbin model to explore the carbon emission effect of industrial structure optimization of the Yangtze River economic belt,and introduces the secondary terms of advanced output structure,advanced employment structure and rationalization of industrial structure in the analysis to verify whether its carbon emission effect has nonlinear characteristics.Firstly,based on the fixed effect model,this paper introduces the quadratic term of industrial structure optimization and upgrading to analyze the nonlinear relationship between industrial structure optimization and upgrading and carbon emission.Secondly,this paper divides the Yangtze River economic belt into three regions: the upper,middle and lower reaches,analyzes the impact of industrial structure optimization and upgrading on carbon emissions under different samples,and finds that there is regional heterogeneity;Finally,based on the spatial Dobbin model,this paper analyzes the spatial spillover effect of industrial transformation on carbon emissions.The results of the current situation analysis show that: on the whole,the output structure of the Yangtze River economic belt is the evolution process of "two to three",and the employment structure has experienced the changes of "one to two and three" in the early stage and "one to three" in the later stage.The changing trends of the two are not consistent.From a subregional perspective,the evolution trends of output structure and employment structure in the upper,middle and lower reaches are different,and they are also different from the overall evolution trend of the Yangtze River economic belt.Overall,the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure of the Yangtze River economic belt is obvious,and the decline of carbon emissions is also significant,but the regional differences can not be ignored.The higher the upstream area,the lower the degree of upgrading and rationalization of the industrial structure.The reason is that the proportion of the employed population in the primary industry is relatively high and the proportion of the output of the tertiary industry is still low.The results of empirical analysis show that: first,from the benchmark regression structure of the overall sample,the linear regression results show that,on average,the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has not shown emission reduction effect on carbon emissions,but emission increase effect.Further,the results of the nonlinear model show that the impact of the upgrading of output structure and employment structure on carbon emissions shows an inverted U-shaped relationship,but the rationalization of industrial structure does not show a similar nature.Second,from the results of grouping regression,the carbon emission effect of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River economic belt has obvious regional heterogeneity.Specifically,the middle and upper reaches mainly show the effect of emission increase and the lower reaches mainly show the effect of emission reduction.The industrial structure of each region is in different stages of economic development,and the impact on carbon emission basically conforms to the theory of Environmental Kuznets curve.Third,from the regression results of spatial Doberman model.The local carbon emission effect of industrial structure optimization and upgrading is positive,while the spatial carbon emission effect is negative.After introducing the square term,the local carbon emission effect is an inverted U-shaped relationship of first increase and then decrease,while the spatial carbon emission effect is mainly a linear emission reduction effect.Although the quadratic term coefficient is positive,it fails to pass the significance test,indicating that the nonlinear characteristics of the spatial effect are not obvious.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy enlightenment.First,it is an inevitable choice to continue to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode.Second,fully understand the impact of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure on carbon emissions under the difference of economic development level and regional resource endowment,and formulate environmental regulations and industrial development policies according to local and timely conditions.Third,carbon emission governance strategies should be considered from the perspective of national or regional unity,try to establish an interregional carbon emission trading system for local governments,allow local governments to trade carbon emission rights,encourage cooperative development and avoid zero sum game,so as to make carbon emission governance actions sustainable.