Research On Path Optimization Of Hydrogen Production Technology In China

With the increasing demand for energy and the increasingly serious situation of global warming,countries around the world are actively seeking multi-dimensional strategies for low-carbon development of energy.Hydrogen energy,a clean,efficient and renewable secondary energy source,has attracted the attention of governments around the world under the double pressure.China is now the largest hydrogen producer in the world,but is facing a number of challenges.Firstly,hydrogen production industry in China is still in the stage of market introduction,and there are limited hydrogen supply channels for market economy.Secondly,hydrogen production technology from fossil fuels plays a key role in hydrogen production supply structure in China.China has a long way to go to truly achieve clean production and economic supply of hydrogen energy.Therefore,in order to make the hydrogen energy transition into the energy supply of sustainable development in China in the future,it is necessary to make economically optimized predictions and plans for the technical path of hydrogen production industry under environmental constraints,so as to provide optimal supply designs,capacity expansion policies and investment strategies for the development of hydrogen energy in China.This will help China actively respond to global climate change,ensure the security of national energy supply,and achieve sustainable development.Based on the technologies of hydrogen production industry in China,this paper uses the TIMES（The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System）model,integrating the hydrogen production industry into the energy,economy and environment（3E）system to construct the TIMES model of hydrogen production industry system in China.Then the development prospect and technical path of hydrogen energy industry in China are predicted,and the emission reduction potential of hydrogen production industry in China is analyzed by scenario analysis.Whether in the theoretical system or in practical application,this study has certain value for the sustainable development of hydrogen energy industry in China.The contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,this paper summarizes the related concepts and theories of the technical path of hydrogen production industry.Secondly,the construction process and scenario setting of the TIMES model of hydrogen production industry system in China are introduced in detail.Finally,this paper analyzes the technical path optimization of hydrogen production industry in China through scenario analysis,and proposes reasonable suggestions and measures.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:（1）With the improvement of carbon dioxide emission reduction target,the hydrogen production technology from Industrial by-products will accelerate the development process and replace the dominant position of hydrogen production technology from fossil energy in the supply structure of hydrogen production industry in China.At the same time,even under the pressure of carbon dioxide emission reduction,hydrogen production technology from industrial by-product is an important medium technology to promote the transition of hydrogen supply pattern that is dominated from hydrogen production technology from fossil energy to electrolysis hydrogen production from renewable energy.（2）The carbon dioxide emission reduction target has little effect on the overall trend of the total annual cost of technical path of hydrogen production industry in China.However,carbon dioxide emission reduction has different effects on the total annual cost of technical path of hydrogen production industry in various time periods in China.Carbon dioxide emission reduction will increase the annual total cost of technical path of hydrogen production industry from 2025,2035 to 2040 in China,with the largest increase in 2040.Carbon dioxide emission reduction will reduce the annual total cost of technical path of hydrogen production industry in 2030 and 2045 in China,and have little impact on the annual total cost of technical path of hydrogen production industry in 2050 in China.In the same time period,the higher the carbon dioxide emission target,the greater the effect on the annual total cost of technical path of the hydrogen production industry in China.（3）The carbon dioxide emissions of technical path of hydrogen production industry will fluctuate downward in China.From 2020 to 2050,the carbon dioxide emission trend of technical path of hydrogen production industry in China will decline as a whole,with two peaks during the period,of which the highest peak will appear in 2025.In the same time period,under the circumstance of ensuring sufficient supply of hydrogen sources in China,the amount of hydrogen supply from industrial by-product will increase with the improvement of carbon dioxide emission reduction target,and the amount of hydrogen supply from fossil energy will decrease with the improvement of carbon dioxide emission reduction target.This paper attempts to make innovations from two aspects:（1）Based on the energy,economy and environment（3E）system,the technical path of hydrogen production industry in China is optimized and predicted from a"bottom-up"perspective.The current research on hydrogen production industry in China is mostly about the evaluation of hydrogen production technology or the horizontal comparison of various hydrogen production technologies.However,there is a serious lack of research on the optimization of the technological path to integrate hydrogen production industry in China into the whole system of energy,economy and environment to realize the coordinated development of 3E.In addition,foreign scholars focus on the research on the technological path of hydrogen production industry in their own countries.Due to the differences in energy,economy,technology and other factors between one country and another,the corresponding research conclusions are also different.Therefore,the models built by foreign scholars mostly lack consideration of the specific situation of hydrogen industry in China.As a supplement to the research on hydrogen industry in China,this paper establishes the TIMES model of hydrogen production industry system in China from the technical side,and optimizes technical path of hydrogen production industry by coordinating 3E system,so as to find a cost-effective and sustainable hydrogen energy development strategy.（2）The TIMES model is used to study the optimization status of technical path of hydrogen production industry in China under different carbon dioxide emission reduction pressures.Domestic and foreign scholars have widely applied the TIMES model to the study of energy problems in transportation,construction,industry and power industry,but there is a lack of literature research on the application of the TIMES model to hydrogen production industry.In this paper,the TIMES model is applied to study the optimization status of technical path of hydrogen production industry in China,which is the supplement of the literatures of the TIMES model application.In addition,model simulations based on different CO₂ emission reduction targets aim to study the dynamic evolution trend of technical path of hydrogen production industry in China when facing different CO₂ emission reduction targets.Different from existing research,this will enable the development of hydrogen energy in China to comprehensively consider technical characteristics,economic characteristics and environmental characteristics.