Research On Public Natural Disaster Risk Perception And Dynamic Evolution

In recent years,natural disaster events have continuously occurred,which seriously affected the public’s production and life,and caused an indelible impact on their psychology.The public’s level of risk perception of natural disasters has also changed accordingly.Too high or low risk perception levels are not conducive to disaster response Management and the harmonious development of society.A high level of public risk perception will cause them to panic and cause irrational psychology and behavior;while a low level of public risk perception will make them less alert to disaster risks and trigger negative coping behaviors.Therefore,the public’s perception of natural disaster risks and the evolution process have received increasing attention from our government’s relevant administrative departments,scholars and other interest groups.It is of great significance to further strengthen research on public risk perception and evolution.This paper first analyzes the actual situation with the help of disaster risk perception related theories,studies the public natural disaster risk perception model and internal mechanism,and reveals the influencing factors of public risk perception in natural disaster situations.Further,considering the timeliness and space of natural disaster information,memory theory and core and marginal theory are introduced into the evolution model of public natural disaster risk perception,and relevant government decision makers can release effective information in a timely manner according to the evolution law of public natural risk perception.Disaster information,adjust the public’s risk perception,and provide support for improving public disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.The main research work and conclusions are as follows:(1)Explained the purpose and significance of this study.By summarizing the current status,dimensions and quantification methods of natural disaster risk perception at home and abroad,it lays a solid foundation for the subsequent construction of public natural disaster risk perception models,emphasizing the time and space dimensions for the public.Impact of risk perception.(2)Comb and analyze research results related to disaster risk perception,and combine the actual situation to refine the life cycle of natural disaster risk events,build a conceptual model of public natural disaster risk perception,and theoretically analyze the impact of the public on natural disasters Related factors of risk perception level emphasize the influence of individual psychological factors,nature factors of natural disaster risk events,organizational factors and social media factors on public risk perception.(3)Further explore the evolution of public natural disaster risk perception over time and space,use memory theory and core and marginal theory,consider public memory and attention to disaster information,quantify public natural disaster risk perception,and build Evolutionary model of public natural disaster risk perception in time and space dimensions.(4)By selecting three representative natural disaster events and combining actual data examples,MATLAB software system was used to simulate the evolution process of public risk perception,and the differences of public risk perception evolution process under different natural disaster news reporting models were compared.It analyzes the evolution law of group risk perception with different forgetting rates in different life cycles of natural disasters,and analyzes in detail the causes of risk perception deviations in different periods.Thirdly,the differences in the evolution process of public risk perception in different spaces are compared,and the reasons for the bias of risk perception during the evolution of natural disasters in different regions are analyzed in detail.Based on the public’s perception of natural disaster risks,this article proposes targeted countermeasures to adjust the public’s level of natural disaster risk perception,which helps government departments formulate disaster emergency strategies tailored to local conditions and time.