Disaster Events Based On The Complexity Of Network Evolution And Control Model

The frequency of disaster in different countries is higher and higher in recent years. Once one kind of catastrophe occurs, it is always accompanied by a variety of disasters. And finally the disaster group would form a powerful destructive force. Therefore, it is extraordinarily exigent and necessary to investigate the disaster group, and reveal its essence of evolutive law. Based on dynamics theory of complex network, the evolution law and control mechanism for the disaster system is analyzed, which is aiming at offering convicting evidence for disaster emergency management.The following works is fulfilled within this thesis:(1) The configuration of disaster evolution system is expatiated. The disaster evolution mode and behavior is classified. Coupling form and control level of different evolution mode are analyzed accordingly.(2) According to the characteristic of disaster evolution system, disaster evolution network is constructed. Network topology is proposed, and the characteristic of disaster evolution network is discussed.(3) Based on above disaster evolution network, a new model for describing the disaster system including instantaneous and continuous action synchronously is developed. Consequently evolution digital simulation of disaster and its Secondary disaster is achieved.(4) Destroyed rate number and potential consequential loss is established for every node in the disaster system. The occurrence frequency and potential consequential loss for every node in the disaster system could be calculated preferably, and the hazard for the disaster could be assessed well in order to find the key node and advance some promising strategies. And important parameters are analyzed, such as the impact of causative disaster event, noise of disaster node and self-healing function.(5) The constructed model is applied to the "Morakot" Typhoon disaster evolution system in Taiwan Province during in August 6,2009 to September 8. "Morakot" typhoon evolution systems is controlled by the model with different characteristic parameters, and the results indicate that key links of typhoon evaluation system could be detected, and then its secondary disasters would be controlled effectively. Therefore, application of evaluation model provides a reliable basis for project and management of emergency plan.The correlative production is applied to the project of Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering "Example research of Beijing typical disaster evolution and control" (2009.05-2010.09).