Research On Integrated Evaluation Of Urban Natural Disaster Emergency Capability

The evaluation of urban natural disaster emergency capacity is an important part of urban emergency management. Constructing scientific evaluation system and implementing effective evaluation is the important method to promote the level of urban emergency management. Aiming at the shortage of current research in evaluation of urban emergency capacity, this paper proposed that it is necessary to put the factor of natural disaster risk into the evaluation system basd on natural disaster theory, emergency management theory and sophisticated system theory. Meanwhile, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of given emergency events and process mechanism of emergency management and constructs the theory system of integrated evaluation.This paper makes deep research into the formulation and operation of urban natural disaster emergency system, influencing factors of urban natural emergency capacity, coupling relationship among these factors, construction of integrated evaluation indicators and integrated evaluation modeling with the research methods of statistics, econometrics and the combining analysis of quantitative and qualitative perspective.First of all, in the basis of sophisticated system theory this paper studys the formulation and function of urban natural disaster emergency system. The 3-D framework model of urban natural disaster emergency management is put forward based on the analysis of urban natural disaster formation mechanism combined with A·D·Hall's 3-D structure, which provides theory proof for the formulation of urban natural disaster emergency management system. Then, accordingly, the two dimensions of urban natural disaster emergency capability, which is, supporting dimension - urban resisting natural disaster capability and presure dimension - urban natural disaster risk are brought forward innovatively.Secondly, influence factors of urban natural disaster emergency capability are introduced through the urban natural disaster emergency system. The analysis of coupling relationship is performed on influence factors of two dimensions by interpretative structural model, thus their influence hierarchy and action mechanism is obtained. The integrated evaluation index system of urban emergency capability, which consists of regional natural disaster risk and natural disaster resisting capability, is formulated and recognized with the help of high frequency index reogniztion, R type hierarchical clustering and mutation coefficient to make sure the system's integrative and representative.Thirdly, in the aspect of constructing mathematic model for integrated evaluation, after analyzing the data features of integrated evaluation index system, this paper put forward:①draw on projection pursuit thouhgts combined with K-means cluster, to construct urban natural disaster risk level evaluation model based on the improved projection pursuit cluster. In this model, taking advantage of the superiorities of projection pursuit and K-means cluster in high and low dimensional space respectively, the process is improved that traditional projection pursuit cluster decreases from high-dimension to one-dimension. In the optimization process of projection direction, clone immune algorithm is substutite for genetic algorithm in order that convergence rate is accerated to avoid falling into local optimum;②to construct the unscertained measure evaluation model of urban capability to resist natural disaster by combing basic principles with blind number based on unascertained mathematics;③According to two-dimension evaluation model of urban natural disaster emergency capability, an integrated evaluation model of urban natural disaster is built.Finally, this paper chooses seven sample cities to make empirical research by three rules: located in high incidence zone of natural disaster, relatively complete city types and coverage of China's most territory area. The empirical results show that: the level of resisting natural disaster capacity in the selected sample cities is quite different and generally at the level of general and poor, and introduction of natural disaster risk analysis into integrated evaluation improves the discrimination. Evaluation system has great potential function in the field of promoting the construction of urban natural disaster emergency capacity. Meanwhile, this evaluation system provides scientific basis to construct the effective method to enhance disaster emergency capacity.