Research On Carbon Emission Of Prefabricated Buildings Based On System Dynamics Simulation

With economic development and industrialization,the emission of greenhouse gases is increasing,and the problem of global warming is growing increasingly austere.As one of the pillar industries highly impacting national economy,the rapid development of construction industry introduces several severe environmental issues.The traditional extensive construction method,which has high resource consumption and causes heavy environmental pollution,fails to fulfill a coordinated sustainable development of construction industry Recently,featured by energy saving,environmental protection,high efficiency and high quality,the prefabricated building,which is vigorously promoted by the government and experienced rapid development,is of vital importance in the transformation and upgrading of construction industry.Therefore,exploration on carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings is of great practical significance.At present,the researches on in this area only focus on the calculation and comparison of carbon emissions of single building and therefore lack the control analysis at a macro level,which is necessary since the carbon emission of prefabricated buildings involves complex factors and has strong system integrity.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the carbon emission trend and emission reduction potential of prefabricated buildings from the perspective of industrial developmentIn view of the above situation,from the perspective of large-scale development of prefabricated buildings,this paper discusses the causal relationship and a feedback mechanism of factors influencing carbon emission of prefabricated buildings by system dynamics method,predicts the trend of total carbon emission and emission reduction effect,and finds an optimal path of large-scale development and improvement on emission reduction efficiency.Based on relevant researches,18 factors affecting carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings,including population size,economic development and energy consumption,are firstly identified from social economy,government decision-making,market environment and energy consumption using Kaya identity.Then the adjacency matrix of influencing factors is established through expert interviews,and the action paths of each system are clarified.Based on these preparations,the causal loop diagram of the system is established.Specifically,combined with the current development of the local construction market and relevant data,using statistical methods to estimate the model parameters and equations,the dynamic model of carbon emission system of prefabricated buildings is established and tested on data in Shandong Province,and the carbon emission trend of prefabricated building market in Shandong Province under the current development conditions is simulated and predicted.Thirdly,this paper examines the sensitivity of policy guidance,prefabricated rate requirements,incremental costs,investment in scientific and technological innovation and other parameters to the carbon emission system,and set the scenario combination of sensitive parameters based on the constraints that the scale of prefabricated buildings should reach the government planning target in Shandong Province Finally,the IDMI method is used to screen out the path scheme with the best emission reduction effect for the combination of scenarios that satisfy the constraints,and on this basis,policy recommendations to promote the optimal development of prefabricated buildings are proposed.The research results show that:(1)The development of prefabricated buildings will gradually slow down the growth of total carbon emissions in the construction industry.(2)The emission reduction effect of prefabricated buildings is significant.By 2035,the prefabricated construction market can reduce 107305 tons of carbon emissions compared with the traditional construction market.(3)Reducing incremental costs and increasing investment in technological innovation is an effective path to achieve a large-scale development of the prefabricated construction market and meanwhile improve its emission reduction effects.