Human-water Harmony Evaluation And Simulation Regulation Research In Xinjiang

Xinjiang is located in northwest China,with an arid climate and scarce water resources.In recent years,along with the socio-economic development,the humanwater relationship in Xinjiang has become increasingly tense.In addition,there are great differences between Xinjiang and other regions of China in terms of water use structure and natural geographical environment conditions.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to establish a quantitative evaluation index system of human-water harmony applicable to Xinjiang,in order to improve the study of human-water relationship in China.We establish a quantitative evaluation index system of human-water harmony using socio-economic and water resources data of Xinjiang from 2006 to 2016.The entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process are used to determine the weights,and fuzzy affiliation is used to calculate the sub-harmonies of each indicator to quantitatively evaluate the human-water harmony in Xinjiang.Subsequently,statistical methods and exploratory spatial statistical analysis are used to further explore the spatial and temporal evolution of human-water harmony.Finally,different scenarios of human-water relations in Xinjiang are set to simulate the evolution of human-water harmony from 2017 to 2030,and mutual verification is performed with the help of random forest regression to provide regulatory countermeasures for seeking the path of human-water harmony development.The main findings are as follows.(1)From 2014 to 2016,the human-water harmony in Xinjiang increased in fluctuation and was generally at a low level with uneven spatial distribution,from high to low in the order of northern,eastern and southern Xinjiang.From 2006 to 2009,the human-water harmony in Xinjiang fluctuated slightly between 0.564 and 0.570;From2014 to 2016,the human-water harmony increased from 0.591 to 0.623;The humanwater harmony in northern Xinjiang ranged between 0.537 and 0.675;The southern Xinjiang ranged between 0.452 and 0.620.(2)The spatial autocorrelation of human-water harmony was poor in all administrative regions of Xinjiang from 2006 to 2016.The global Moran’s I index showed a "W" curve,and only a few years passed the significance test.From 2006 to2016,the "low-low" agglomeration of human-water harmony degree concentrated in the southwest of Xinjiang,and the "high-high" agglomeration and "low-high" agglomeration appeared in the northern Xinjiang in 2006 and 2016 respectively.(3)The results of the scenario simulation of the human-water relationship in Xinjiang show that under the status quo scenario,the degree of human-water harmony is relatively stable and slightly decreases from 0.623 to 0.617 during 2017 to 2030;Under the economic development priority scenario,the degree of human-water harmony is initially higher than that of the status quo scenario,but then decreases sharply;Under the ecological priority scenario,the degree of human-water harmony is relatively stable and increases slowly;Under the sustainable development scenario,the degree of human-water harmony increases from 0.632 to 0.665,with a clear upward trend.(4)Xinjiang needs to maintain economic growth while balancing ecological environment and water conservation and efficiency;Firstly,to focus on innovation in agricultural water conservation technologies and measures;Secondly,to optimize and adjust the crop cultivation structure;Subsequently,to strengthen the key management of low value areas of human-water harmony in southern Xinjiang;Finally,to rely on knowledge and technological inputs to ensure steady economic growth.