Emergency Resources Of Chemical Industrial Park Based On Domino Effect In Early Warning Period

Usually those sudden natural disasters are very destructive,and this great destruction will often lead to a series of chain emergencies,resulting in a domino effect.As a representative model of the development of the chemical industry,while the chemical park continues to generate economic profits,its ability to deal with sudden natural disasters has gradually become a key issue of concern.On the one hand,China has a long coastline,at the same time,those coastal areas that have gathered a large number of chemical parks are also frequently disturbed by typhoons.On the other hand,in the emergency management of sudden natural disasters,the effective scheduling of emergency resources is one of the important factors to determine the emergency management.As one of the core links of emergency rescue,the allocation of emergency resources directly determines the success of emergency rescue.However,due to the complex mechanism and characteristics of the accidents of dangerous chemicals in the chemical park,the material demand has the characteristics of uncertainty.At the same time,it will also increase the difficulty of predicting the demand information of accident materials,which makes it difficult to formulate the emergency resource allocation plan effectively.Based on the actual situation and taking the typhoon disaster as the background,this thesis fully considers the emergency resource allocation scheme of the chemical park under the domino effect in the disaster early warning period.First of all,based on the systematic analysis of the development mechanism of domino effect,this thesis confirms the probability of domino accident,and combines the characteristics and historical data of hazardous chemicals in chemical park to get the demand of relevant emergency materials.Secondly,because of the error of demand forecasting itself,the demand data type is considered as continuous uncertain data and discrete uncertain data.And this thesis establishes the emergency resource allocation model respectively,in order to study the effective allocation of key emergency resources.Among them,the demand continuous emergency resource allocation model is solved by adjustable robust optimization method and light robust optimization method respectively.Although the solution obtained by adjustable robust optimization method has strong robustness,it is possible that it is too conservative.Therefore,this thesis further uses light robust optimization method to improve the adjustable robust optimization method in order to reduce the conservatism of the model.At the same time,numerical experiments are carried out on the two algorithms with the same parameters,and the experimental results show that the two optimization methods are effective.Considering that the "scenario"-"response" model can more effectively reflect the needs of the actual emergency resource scheduling,and can well deal with the uncertainty caused by emergencies,this thesis discretizes the demand data and introduces scenario estimation to establish the min-mix regret robust optimization model.And based on the scenario relaxation algorithm to solve,this thesis uses the relevant data of a coastal chemical park to carry on the numerical experiment to the model.At the same time,the experimental results show the effectiveness and timeliness of the emergency resource allocation model.