Study On Random Evolution Of Mass Behavior Of Rail Transit Accidents

At present,China’s rail transit has become the backbone of the public transportation system for the convenience and benefit of the people in large and medium-sized cities,but operating accidents still occur,affecting social order and causing property losses.In the operation accident,the manager and the passenger play different roles respectively,and mutual cooperation is an ideal strategy.However,the environment of the group in the operation accident is full of uncertainty,and the group is easily affected by various factors.These factors will produce random interference to the evolution process of the group emergency,accelerate the degree of confrontation,and lead to random mutation.In the light of the rail transit operation under uncertainty environment,constructing group behavior based on evolutionary game theory stochastic evolutionary game model,calculate the different scenario,managers,and passengers cooperation strategy evolution results under different random disturbance intensity,and puts forward suggestions to such mass accidents,scientific and effective emergency management decision-making plan for timely provide related basis,also for the related department for reference to promote group emergency management ability of the government.The main research work of this paper is as follows:(1)Combined with classic case dependency dimension to structural description of rail transit operation accidents,and from the perspective of bounded rationality crowd behavior,managers,and to explore the operation accident passenger group behavior characteristics,analysis of the external environment and internal environment,its own characteristics on the influence of group behavior,group behavior analysis of development process and development trend,from two aspects of the static structure and dynamic process,the correct understanding and explore emergency evolution mechanism of group behavior,it is concluded that the interests of the game between different groups is the main cause of contradiction conflict.(2)The group behavior game of rail transit operation accidents is divided into two categories: single agent group behavior and double agent group behavior.Group by analyzing the limited rational behavior and interest relations in rail transit operation accidents,and introduce the gauss white noise reflection crowd behavior affected by the uncertainty of,establish a single main body(managers-managers,passengers-passengers)and double main body behavior(managers-passengers)groups random evolutionary game model,using the replicated dynamic equation for the evolution process of the model reasoning and USES mathematical methods to analyze stability of the model,finally using Taylor expansion theory and ITO stochastic differential equation for Nash equilibrium of the model,get the expected revenue impact on the group strategy choice and the general rule in the evolution of main different game behavior.(3)For intuitive describe stochastic evolutionary game process of group behavior,this article with the aid of scenario analysis of rail transit operation accidents crowd behavior explore the evolution of different state,using the method of numerical simulation based on MATLAB Millstein,under different scenarios by changing the main random disturbance intensity to simulate different game dynamic evolution process of group behavior observation group managers and passengers with random disturbance intensity change influence on the evolution of two kinds of game behavior subject groups,the final combination of scene simulation results come to the conclusion and gives the corresponding policy recommendations.