Temporal And Spatial Distributions Of Ammonia Emission In The Yangtze River Economic Zone And Its Influence On PM_2.5

With the accelerated development of industrialization and urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,its environmental quality has continued to deteriorate,and regional air pollution incidents have occurred frequently.Since the Yangtze River Economic Belt occupies a pivotal position in the national economy,understanding the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and evolution of ammonia emissions in the Yangtze River Basin has important reference value for the trace ability of regional atmospheric events and overall atmospheric environmental governance.This paper uses the emission factor method to assess the ammonia emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2018 at the municipal level,analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of ammonia emissions,determines the hotspot distribution and transfer trends of ammonia emissions,and identifies the driving factors of ammonia emissions and the future under different scenarios.Ammonia emissions.Analyze the change trend of PM2.5,the agglomeration effect and its correlation with ammonia emissions,and explore the influence of various factors on PM2.5.This research will provide a theoretical basis and scientific reference for reducing ammonia emissions,improving air quality issues,and formulating corresponding ammonia emission reduction policies for environmental decision-makers.The main work is as follows:(1)Based on the city-level ammonia emission activity data in the Yangtze River Economic Zone,assess the amount of ammonia emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2000 to 2018.The results show that the total amount of ammonia emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone increased from 4189 kt to 4717 kt between 2000 and 2014,and after 2014,due to the implementation of the ammonia reduction strategy,ammonia emissions have been greatly reduced.Among them,nitrogen fertilizer application and livestock breeding in the Yangtze River Economic Zone are the main sources of emissions,accounting for more than 80%of the total emissions in the region.From 2000 to 2018,the center position of ammonia emissions drawn based on the standard deviation ellipse method shifted from upstream to downstream,and the center of gravity of ammonia emissions continued to move downward.(2)Principal component analysis results show that regional population growth has a significant positive correlation with ammonia emissions(r=0.80,p<0.01),while precipitation changes are negatively correlated with overall ammonia emissions(r=-0.74,p<0.01).Based on the analysis of climate simulation data,the total ammonia emissions in the study area in 2035 under the baseline scenario will increase by 15%compared with 2018.Specifically,in the future,effective management of farmland system control,livestock breeding environmental management and waste disposal exhaust gas can generate 15%,19%and 3.7%emission reduction potential.If all management measures are taken,it is expected that the study area will be reached by 2035.The ammonia reduction potential can reach 32%.From a spatial point of view,there is obvious heterogeneity in the potential for ammonia reduction.The upstream urban livestock and poultry farming has a large emission reduction potential,while the downstream farmland has a large emission reduction potential.In view of this,the government’s emission reduction strategy should be adapted to local conditions,starting with the establishment of demonstration areas in hotspots,and gradually extending it to the entire region.(3)Through correlation analysis,the response relationship between PM2.5 evolution and ammonia emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone was further explored.The results showed that over time,the PM2.5 concentration changes showed a trend of first decreasing,then increasing,and then decreasing.Among them,the highest concentration appeared in 2011.In terms of space,the PM2.5 concentration presents a spatial distribution characteristic of low upstream,middle and high downstream.The change of PM2.5 concentration in downstream cities is earlier than that in other regions,only showing a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,which is consistent with changes in ammonia emissions.Correlation analysis shows that the concentration of PM2.5 in the Yangtze River Economic Zone has a high degree of spatial aggregation,and there is a significant positive correlation with nitrogen emissions(r=0.48,p<0.05).(4)The spatial regression analysis of changes in PM2.5 concentration based on socioeconomic,meteorological and other factors shows that the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and the level of economic development is obvious,and the areas with high PM2.5 concentrations are mostly cities with high economic levels.At the same time,there is also a clear negative correlation between temperature changes and the evolution of PM2.5 concentration,and precipitation is negative correlated with changes in PM2.5 concentration.The impact of population density on PM2.5 concentration is not significant,and research will develop differently.The strategy of horizontal urban ammonia emission control and reduction of PM2.5 concentration provides reference.