The Simulation And Design Of Urban And Rural Land Change Process In The Transnational Area Of Tumen River Based On Ecosystem Services

The transnational area of Tumen River(TATR)crosses the border between China,the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea(DPRK)and Russia,and is the most important ecological function zone in my country.Revealing and simulating the process of urban and rural land change in the region,evaluating its impact on regional ecosystem services,and carrying out urban and rural land design research on this basis,and then maintaining and improving regional ecosystem services are important for promoting regional sustainable development.Significance.At present,there is a lack of research on the process of future urban and rural land changes based on ecosystem services and their impact on ecosystem services in the region.Therefore,based on multi-source data such as land use data,meteorological data,and soil data,this paper uses the LUSD-urban(Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban)model to simulate different ecosystem service(ESs)protection scenarios in the Tumen River transboundary area from 2016 to 2050.In order to evaluate the effect of ecosystem service protection under different scenarios,explore the ways of urban and rural land design in the future.The main work and findings of this research are as follows.(1)Quantifying the spatial pattern of ecosystem services in TATR in 2016.In 2016,the food supply,carbon storage,water conservation and air purification of TATR area were 54.87×10~5t、43.82×10~6t、24.62×10~8t and 11.70×10~7t.Respectively.Among them,China has the most carbon storage,water conservation,and air purification,accounting for 43.86%,41.28%,and 43.91%of the region’s carbon storage,water conservation,and air purification,respectively.The food supply on the North Korean side is the largest,accounting for 45.99%of the food supply in the district.(2)Multi-scale quantification of urban and rural land change processes from 1999 to 2016,and simulation of urban and rural land change processes under different scenarios from 2016 to 2050.Based on the analysis of the urban and rural land change process from 1999 to 2016,the regional LUSD-urban model was used to simulate the urban and rural land change process from 2016 to 2050.The results show that from 2016 to 2050,the urban land area of the district will increase from48985.83hm~2 to 69775.65 hm~2,an increase of 42%and the proportion of urban land in the total area of the district will increase from 2.04%to 2.91%.The area of rural land in the whole district will increase from 27829.08hm~2 to 45402.30 hm~2,an increase of63.15%.The proportion of rural land in the total area of the district has increased from0.10%to 0.17%.From the perspective of China,DPRK and Russia,the process of urban expansion on the Chinese side is the most obvious,increasing from 15560.91 hm~2 in2016 to 25818.57hm~2 in 2050,an increase of 65.92%,followed by Russia and DPRK the least.The rural land expansion on the Chinese side is the most obvious,increasing from 12661.92 hm~2 in 2016 to 24817.5 hm~2 in 2050,an increase of 96.00%,followed by DPRK and Russia the least.(3)Protecting farmland and woodland will be an effective way to plan and design future urban and rural land,thereby protecting regional ecosystem services and promoting regional sustainable development.By setting supply service protection scenarios,adjustment service protection scenarios and comprehensive protection scenarios,the process of urban land and rural land changes under different ecosystem service protection scenarios in the future can be simulated.On this basis,by comparing the amount of loss of ecosystem services under different scenarios from 2016 to 2050,it explores the way to design urban and rural land in the TATR.The results suggested that,compared with the trend scenario,the comprehensive protection scenario has the most obvious effect on the protection of ecosystem services in the TATR.Under the comprehensive protection scenario,20965.77hm~2 of farmland and 6113.61hm~2 of woodland can be effectively protected,so that the carbon storage,food supply,air purification,and water conservation in the whole area are protected respectively 19.25×10~5t,5.70×10~5t,19.06×10~4t and 5.25×10~6t,the loss of each service is 51.91%,83.46%,26.47%and 19.70%lower than the trend scenario.Therefore,it is recommended that in the future expansion of urban and rural settlements in the TATR,the development of urban and rural land growth boundaries and ecological protection red lines are recommended to protect regional farmland and woodland,thereby protecting and improving regional key ecosystem services,and promoting the map.The landscape of the TATR is sustainable.