Study On The Potential Impact Of Carbon Tariff On China’s Export Of Automobile Products

With the growing international call for energy conservation and emission reduction,countries and regions such as the United States,the European Union,and Japan have started to prepare legislation for the levy of carbon tariffs.As a developing country,China belongs to the levied countries in the international arena,so energy saving and emission reduction for various industries has become an important issue.And the automobile products has always been as a major carbon emitter,the export of automotive products undoubtedly faces a daunting challenge.Especially China’s auto parts,exports are mainly sold to developed countries,so it is very likely to face the impact of carbon tax.According to the analysis of previous literature on carbon tariffs,there is a lack of research results on the impact of carbon tariffs on the export of automobile products,so this paper makes a prediction on the impact of carbon tariffs on the export of automobile products through a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.This paper firstly introduces the concept and background of carbon tariff in detail,and analyzes the possibility of China being levied carbon tax based on China’s industrial production status and export trade structure,and finds that once the carbon tariff is legislated,China is likely to be listed as the target of the tax.Subsequently,based on the export status of China’s automobile products,the current situation and existing problems of China’s exports of complete vehicles and components are analyzed respectively,which also provide a factual basis for the policy recommendations in the later paper.In addition,this paper uses the input-output method to calculate the implied carbon emissions from the exports of the automotive products based on the input-output table and the export data of the automotive products in 2017 as the base period,which provides data support for calculating the carbon tariff rate levied on China’s automotive products,and the results show that the carbon emission of automobile products is as high as 830344093 million tons,and once the carbon tariff is levied,the tax rate is as high as 13%or more even under the lowest assumption.Then,this paper analyzes the impact of carbon tariff on the export volume,market price and social welfare of China’s automobile products from both theoretical and empirical aspects.In theory,it forecasts based on the general equilibrium model.In the empirical aspect,the carbon tax will impact the domestic market price,export volume and social welfare of China’s automobile products according to the simulation analysis of GTAP model under the global scenario and the single country carbon tariff.Under the global situation,the domestic market price of China’s automobile products has dropped from 0.06%to 0.33%,the export volume has decreased by 60%-203%,and the social welfare decline range is between us $3.726 billion and US $19.247 billion,which is consistent with the theoretical analysis results based on the general equilibrium theory model.Under the single country situation,it is found that the dependence of Chinese automobile products on the U.S.market is greater than that of Japan.Under the three levels of carbon tariff rate,China’s export to the United States has a decrease of 0.26%to 0.82%,0.07%to 0.26%for the EU,and 0.02%to 0.06%for Japan.Finally,combined with the above research conclusions and considering the current situation of automobil e export,this paper puts forward the following suggestions from the two levels of government and enterprises:from the perspective of government.And the use of diplomatic strategy,response to the call of international emission reduction,participate in the legislation and formulation of carbon tariffs,and strive for a certain voice.In China,carbon taxes can be levied on enterprises in advance to avoid carbon tariffs,and subsidies and support can be given to enterprises’ emission reduction measures;From the enterprise level,enterprises can deal with carbon tariffs from three aspects:independent emission reduction,transfer of production,and improvement of brand competitiveness.