| The 19 th national congress of the communist party of China(CPC)pointed out that we must unswervingly implement the concept of innovative,coordinated,green,open and Shared development,pointing out the direction to comprehensively solve China’s economic development problems in the new era.At present,China’s economic development is becoming increasingly regional.Under the premise of adhering to the development principle of green and sharing,exploring the development of low-carbon economy strategy has become one of the most realistic and urgent research topics.According to the United States energy information administration(2013),according to a report issued by the China has become the world’s largest energy consumption and carbon emissions most populous country,as the core of China’s industrial development area of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,in the long term cooperation in the development of the environmental problems facing the increasingly serious,to explore the interaction of regional economy development and environment study,to implement the concept of green development,solve the overall energy and environment problems has important realistic meaning and reference value.Based on the theory of input-output analysis,prepare a list of the carbon input and output of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,calculate the carbon emission coefficient,comparative analysis and integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region analysis,comprehensive explore various industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region development contribution and role in carbon emissions,thus to promote the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region green provide decision-making reference for analysis and policy support.The main research contents are as follows:First,the compilation of carbon emissions input-output tables for the integrated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Based on the 2017 Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin,this paper builds an input-output model and analyzes the status and structural characteristics of the industrial development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area.First,the analysis framework of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei carbon emissions input-output model was designed,the steps of the model analysis were determined,the regional basis for input-output analysis was selected,and the Beijing-China carbon emissions input-output table was used as the basis to compile Tianjin and Hebei regions.Based on the carbon emissions input-output table of 42 departments;secondly,on the premise of analyzing the overall framework,analyze how this article realizes the input-output integration analysis of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Through the input-output row model and column model,focus on exploring Beijing-Tianjin Integrated model of carbon emissions input-output analysis in Hebei Province.Finally,it demonstrates the feasibility of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional input-output analysis and the tabulation steps and results of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei carbon emissions input-output analysis.The research in this section lays the theoretical basis for the research on carbon emissions in the process of realizing the integration of the industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Second,the status of carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and analysis of influencing factors.Prior to the analysis of carbon emissions input and output in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,this study comprehensively used qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods to systematically examine the energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and analyzed the energy consumption trends in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei in detail.The top ten and bottom ten industries in energy consumption are listed for comparative analysis.Based on the analysis of total energy consumption,the research level has been sunk,pointing out the energy consumption of the 42 departments in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and a comprehensive analysis of the energy consumption of the entire region.At the same time,this research focuses on the analysis and demonstration of the current status of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,its carbon structural characteristics,and the factors that influence carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.In the analysis of total carbon emissions,based on the carbon emissions input-output table,this study elaborated the top ten and bottom ten industries in the Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei region in terms of carbon emissions in order to explore the distribution characteristics of the carbon emissions industry in the Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei region..In the analysis of carbon emission structure,this study will deepen the analysis,use the energy consumption coefficient calculation method,quantitatively analyze the carbon dioxide emissions of various energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and identify the energy product structure of carbon dioxide emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.In terms of influencing factors of carbon emissions,this study uses the factor decomposition method to investigate the carbon emission driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from five dimensions: total carbon emissions effects,energy structure effects,energy intensity effects,population effects,and economies of scale.The main factors affecting the scale and trend of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The research conclusion shows that the carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are mainly concentrated in the secondary industry sector,and there are significant regional differences.The overall scale of carbon emissions in Hebei Province is higher than that in Beijing and Tianjin.Focus area.At the same time,from the perspective of influencing carbon emissions,economic scale and population factors are important factors leading to the generation and growth of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and have an important impact on the interannual changes and trends of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.At the same time,the energy structure effect and energy intensity effect have a restraining effect on the carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,which is also an important foothold for strengthening special carbon emission rectification in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future.Third,a comparative analysis of carbon emissions in the process of industrial development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Using the input-output method and using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei 2017 input-output table as the data basis,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region’s carbon emissions input-output issues are studied in detail.On the one hand,a horizontal comparison of the intermediate demand,final demand and total output ratio of 10 major industries in the 42 industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was made to identify the internal structure of the industrial development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the consumption profile of each industry.Be prepared.On this basis,the direct consumption coefficient and complete consumption coefficient methods are used to further measure the industrial consumption and energy consumption levels of the major industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and perform a horizontal comparative analysis to find out the higher consumption levels in the production and operation process and Sectors with high energy consumption.On the other hand,carry out carbon emission intensity analysis.Based on the analysis of industry and energy consumption coefficients,this study focuses on the issue of carbon emission intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.It compares and analyzes the overall carbon emission intensity and the carbon intensity in each sub-sector.And complete carbon emission coefficient,listed the top ten key carbon emission industries,and analyzed the carbon emissions of major energy products.The research conclusions are in line with the actual situation of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.From the research conclusions,the direct carbon emission coefficient and complete carbon emission coefficient of the secondary industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are relatively high.The direct carbon emission coefficient and complete carbon emission coefficient of the petroleum coking,chemical industry,metal smelting and other industries are in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are at a relatively high level,and the energy consumption structure is dominated by coal.In the future,carbon emission control in key industries should be strengthened,the use of clean energy should be promoted,and a green,low-carbon economic development environment should be created.Fourth,Low carbon economic output prediction and development planning in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.Low carbon economy is an important support to achieve sustainable economic development,and also one of the ultimate goals of carbon emission control.In this study,econometric analysis is used to analyze the low-carbon economic output,carbon emission prediction and development model of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.First of all,based on the traditional macroeconomic theory,this study systematically constructs the optimization model of low-carbon economy in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,sets up the optimization equation and constraints,and makes model design and theoretical derivation for the core issues of energy consumption and carbon emission in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.Secondly,based on the actual situation of low-carbon economic development in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,this study specifically sets three hypothetical scenarios:benchmark scenario,national low-carbon policy scenario and regional low-carbon policy scenario,and measures and compares the optimal output scale of 42 production departments in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei under various hypothetical scenarios,in order to find out the industrial output adjustment goal of realizing the low-carbon economic goal in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei In order to provide theoretical reference and support for the high-quality coordinated development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region during the 14 th five year plan.Third,this study will further promote the quantitative analysis.Combined with the three simulation scenarios of the optimization model,through the construction of econometric prediction model,it specifically predicted the energy consumption,carbon emissions and GDP scale of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei in the future period,and studied the future trend of the regional output,energy consumption and carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei To provide theoretical support for the formulation of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei regional carbon emission reduction plan during the 14 th Five Year Plan period.The conclusion of the study shows that according to the existing industrial structure and energy consumption structure,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can reach the national average level or the respective requirements of the three regions for "green development" planning,but the potential for sustainable "green" and "emission reduction" Not big.Therefore,to truly achieve "high-quality green development",we must thoroughly optimize the structure of energy use,combine regional characteristics,and vigorously develop the use of clean energy such as wind energy.At the same time,the proportion of the secondary industry in the overall regional economy needs to continue to decline and continue to increase the share of the pillar industries such as the construction industry,the electronic information industry,and the financial industry. |
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