| In recent decades,the global economy has maintained a high-speed development trend,especially the industrialization process in developing countries has accelerated greatly,but greenhouse gas emissions have also reached record highs,and environmental and climate issues have become more and more serious.Therefore,related environmental issues It is also increasingly valued by the government and people.However,in the name of protecting the environment,some developed countries use their economic and technological advantages to implement green trade barriers to developing countries and limit their economic development.Carbon tariffs are also a form of green trade barriers.Therefore,it can be seen that carbon tariff is not only an environmental protection policy,but also a means for trade competition between big countries.The chemical industry is a high-carbon emissions industry and occupies a very important position in China's export trade.If the carbon tariff is levied,it will not only restrict the development of China's chemical product exports,but may seriously affect China's economic situation and trade layout.Therefore,this article analyzes the potential impact of carbon tariffs on China's chemical product exports.Taking chemical products as the research object,this paper uses GTAP model to simulate the potential impact of carbon tariff on the export of chemical products in China.Based on the introduction of the background of the topic and the basic concepts of the thesis,this paper uses the data of China statistical yearbook and the official website of the world trade organization,combines the energy carbon emission coefficient of the IPCC and China statistical yearbook of energy in 2014,and calculates the current situation of China's chemical product export and energy consumption.In chapter 4,the influence of carbon tariff on the export of chemical products in China is analyzed theoretically from the aspects of the export volume,market price,terms of trade and social welfare level of chemical products.The fifth chapter is this article core part,the use of import and export trade in China statistical yearbook data,combined with the input-output table,measuring implicit carbon emissions,reuse GTAP simulation model as a case,assume that a carbon tariff on China in the United States,with GTAP version 9 database RunGtap software,as well as chemical products export of our country,the market price,the social welfare level as well as the terms of trade were analyzed,and the theoretical analysis of the fourth chapter empirically tested.Based on the above research results,this article puts forward several suggestions from the government level and the industry level.At the government level,make full use of the WTO's legal mechanism to safeguard their export trade rights,restrict developed countries from issuing unfair trade policies,and actively study countermeasures to carbon tariffs,such as domestic carbon taxes,to balance developed countries.Develop environmental diplomacy,form a united front with developing countries,work together to resist developed countries' green trade barriers against developing countries,and increase support for chemical companies to achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction.At the industry level,we must accelerate the transformation of the chemical industry,promote the transition of China's chemical products from capital-intensive industries to technology-intensive industries,develop unique chemical brands in China,and expand new export markets to strengthen export stability.Finally,give full play to the role of the Chemical Enterprise Management Association,establish a communication bridge between the government and enterprises,and an early warning platform for carbon tariff related information,and cultivate industry personnel familiar with international trade rules... |
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