Research On The Impact Of Maritime Carbon Tariff On China's Economy

As global warming and other environmental problems continue to intensify,countries around the world are taking various measures to protect the environment.Some developed countries have proposed the concept of carbon tariffs.It is to extend the scope of carbon tariffs to the field of trade in services.The European Union proposes to include shipping in the carbon emissions trading system in 2013.Although it is currently opposed by most countries to delay collection,it does not rule out the possibility.Greenhouse gas emissions from global ocean transportation each year are about 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent,accounting for about 3%of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.With the prosperity and development of international trade,the carbon emissions from marine transportation need to be paid enough attention.The International Maritime Organization has formulated a reduction target for maritime transport by 2050,and has imposed strict regulations on sulfide emissions from marine transport vessels since 2020.China is the world's largest exporter,and ocean transportation is an important carrier of China's export trade,and developed countries such as the United States and the European Union are China's main exporters.If developed countries use maritime carbon tariffs as a tool in order to reduce maritime emissions,it will have an impact on our economy.Research on the impact of maritime carbon tariffs on China's economy,to a certain extent,can make up for the lack of existing carbon tariffs on the research of transport services,and propose corresponding policy recommendations based on the results of simulation analysis.The imposition of tariffs will have a significant impact on China.This article mainly studies the impact of the collection of maritime carbon tariffs on China's economy.There are five parts.The first part is an introduction.First,the background and research significance of the topic selected in this article is introduced,followed by the literature review,which mainly includes the nature of carbon tariffs,the legal feasibility of carbon tariffs,the related effects of carbon tariffs,and the related effects of transport carbon tariffs.Finally,it introduces the research ideas and research methods of this paper,including the innovations and deficiencies of this paper.The second part is the concept and theoretical analysis of carbon tariff.The concept of carbon tariff is introduced,and the introduction and development of carbon tariff are described.The theoretical basis of carbon tariff is introduced,and then the impact of marine carbon tariff collection on China's economy is analyzed from the perspective of theoretical analysis,including the impact on export costs,the impact on exports and terms of trade,and the impact on welfare.The third part is the current development of China's export cargo shipping and carbon emissions from shipping.First of all,a theoretical analysis of the current status and development history of China's maritime transport is carried out.It is found that China's maritime transport is in continuous construction and development,no matter in terms of port construction or legal improvement.In 2019,China's port cargo throughput reached 13.95 billion tons,and foreign trade throughput increased by 4.7%over last year.Then the bottom-up method based on turnover was used to calculate the carbon emissions of China's export cargo shipping from 2007 to 2018,and the correlation analysis was made between the carbon emissions of export shipping and the volume of freight transport by sea.The fourth part is based on the GTAP-E model to analyze the impact of marine carbon tariffs on China's economy.Select the carbon tax grades of US$20/ton of CO₂,US$40/ton of CO₂ and US$70/ton of CO₂,and set up nine types of levy schemes,and analyze the possible impact on China's economy if the United States,the European Union and Japan impose marine carbon tariffs on China influences.The last part is the conclusion and policy recommendations.Based on the previous analysis,the carbon emissions in 2008-2011 are in the state of rising in the band,and in 2011-2018 in the band of falling.The collection of marine carbon tariffs will worsen China's terms of trade,which is not conducive to China's exports,especially the export of energy-intensive industrial commodities will be greatly affected.The collection of marine carbon tariffs will also have a negative impact on China's GDP and welfare levels,because the collection of marine carbon tariffs will cause a decrease in China's merchandise exports,and at the same time,the increase in domestic commodity supply will cause the sales price of products to fall,will It has an adverse effect on the international competitiveness of China's export commodities,and further affects China's GDP,causing losses to China's welfare.This article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from the level of government and enterprises.The government level should strengthen China's right to speak in international shipping,improve China's laws and regulations on shipping emissions reduction,and strengthen China's shipping carbon emissions trading market.At the enterprise level,they should improve their R&D capabilities and levels,improve operational efficiency,establish an effective and accurate carbon emission detection system,and the market should continuously adjust the structure of export commodities.The innovation point of this article is to pay attention to the possible impact of levy on carbon tariffs by developed countries on China's economy.Although only the EU proposed a“maritime carbon tax”in 2012,it does not rule out the implementation of maritime emissions reduction targets.Developed countries adopt marine carbon tariffs as a means of reducing emissions.Secondly,this article uses the GTAP9.0database and GTAP-E model to simulate and analyze different collection situations,adopts counterfactual analysis ideas,and uses a recursive dynamic method to update the relevant variable data in the GTAP-E database to 2013.In 2013,developed countries imposed maritime carbon tariffs on China,which may have an impact on China's economy,in order to provide a reference for what may happen in the future.