| The climate warming situation is grim.Countries around the world have taken measures to reduce carbon emissions to mitigate climate change.To achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of this century is the most fundamental measure for the global response to climate change.my country is a developing country with the largest carbon emissions and is facing tremendous pressure to reduce emissions.The Fourteen Five-Year Plan period is an important strategic stage for my country’s economic development and ecological civilization construction.Terms such as low-carbon agriculture,low-carbon cities,and low-carbon consumption have become the direction of social development and planning.The larger proportion in the Chinese market has attracted more attention.This article takes the dairy farming industry in Heilongjiang Province as the research object,starting from the analysis of the current situation of the dairy farming industry,using the fuzzy DEMATELISM influencing factor model to analyze the factors that affect the carbon emission reduction of dairy cows,and concludes that the constraint mechanism affects carbon emission reduction.Fundamental factors,and at the same time,the high importance of the incentive mechanism among the intermediate factors should attract enough attention.Since carbon taxes and subsidies are internationally recognized and typical carbon emission reduction constraints and incentive mechanisms,this article will conduct a simulation study on the impact of carbon taxes and subsidies on carbon emission reduction in the dairy industry in Heilongjiang Province.According to the external theory and equilibrium theory,the carbon tax subsidy theoretical model is built.In order to better analyze the policy effect,the carbon tax rate is set to five levels,and the subsidy is carried out by the way of carbon tax returning to the low-carbon breeding subject,and the return proportion is set to four levels.The specific analysis of carbon emissions,total output and economic benefits of the industry under the scenario of only carbon tax and carbon tax subsidy composite policy Then based on the decoupling theory,the optimal range of carbon tax subsidy is found.Combined with the carbon emission reduction target of Chinese government,the carbon emission of dairy industry in Heilongjiang Province was predicted by using GM(1,1),and the carbon emission intensity was calculated to explore the effect of carbon emission reduction from a long-term perspective.Finally,the paper puts forward suggestions on the implementation of carbon tax subsidy policy of dairy industry in Heilongjiang Province,in order to provide theoretical basis and reference for the government to formulate relevant policies,and provide ideas and reference for relevant researchers.The results show that: carbon tax rate is directly proportional to carbon emission reduction,and inversely proportional to economic level and raw milk production;carbon tax has inhibitory effect on high-carbon breeding subjects;subsidies will weaken carbon emission reduction,but will promote the increase of economic level and raw milk production;when the return ratio of carbon tax to low-carbon breeding subjects is 100%,the change rate of raw milk production and economic level is positive,which indicates that the carbon tax rate is positive When the ratio of carbon tax rate to subsidy coefficient is 2.491<ε/θ<3.272,this interval represents the strong decoupling between raw milk production and carbon emissions;under the combined effect of carbon tax and subsidy,the carbon emission intensity can be reduced by 40%-45% in 2018 compared with 2005,Based on the prediction of carbon emission,the carbon emission intensity in 2030 can be reduced by 60%-65% compared with that in 2005,and the long-term emission reduction effect is significant. |
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