Study On The Driving Mechanism Of Green Transformation Of The Chinese Dairy Farming Industry

After the "melamine" incident in 2008,the Chinese dairy farming industry has become more and more large-scale,the quality of raw and fresh milk has steadily improved,and the industrial momentum has been gradually released.However,while the advantages of intensification,specialization,and scale are prominent,the structural contradictions accumulated by the traditional system have also derived a new "choke point" of economic growth,that is,the intensification of non-point source pollution and the increase of carbon emissions coexist,the combination of high cost and low income,and high input and low output have become the "pain point" restricting the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry.The 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China reaffirmed the profound connotation of the green transformation of the development mode,put forward the development idea of "carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green expansion,and growth" coordinated promotion,and should play the role of government guidance,market innovation,and subject initiative,which not only pointed out the practical direction for the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry but also found a theoretical basis for solving the "choke point" and "pain point" of the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry.Therefore,to effectively promote the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry requires the academic community,especially the agricultural economics community,to raise this practical issue to a scientific issue,and to find the focus of policy through scientific means to provide a scientific basis for the government’s policy formulation,which requires systematic theoretical and empirical research on the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry,build a multi-agent collaboration driving mechanism for the green transformation of the dairy farming industry with Chinese characteristics.This paper aims at the frontier issues in the field of environmental protection and economic growth of dairy farming industry,takes "factual characteristics-driving mechanism-driving effect-driving scenario-mechanism construction" as the logical main line,takes "past-present-future" as the time main line,and looks for strategic measures to promote the green transformation of dairy farming industry as the research goal,in order to reveal the factual characteristics of the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry To explore the driving mechanism of the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry,test the driving effect of the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry,simulate the driving scenario of the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry,and build the driving mechanism of the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry,the paper carried out theoretical and empirical research on the green transformation of dairy farming industry with the main research methods of literature research,field survey,mathematical and quantitative economic analysis methods.Through research,the following conclusions are drawn:First,through mathematical model analysis,it is concluded that the essence of green transformation of the dairy farming industry is the process of replacing polluting dairy farms with environment-friendly dairy farms within the industry so that the industry can achieve a win-win scenario of "emission reduction" and "efficiency enhancement" on the whole.Based on this,the evaluation index system of green transformation of the dairy farming industry was constructed,and the green transformation level of the dairy farming industry was evaluated.It was found that the green transformation of the dairy farming industry in 28 provinces(cities,districts)in the country showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2005 to 2020,and the green transformation level in 2020 was 0.540,which was at the middle-level stage.Based on the strategic layout of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the forecast of the green transformation level from 2021 to 2025,it is found that there is a large gap between the expected target value of 0.645 and the predicted result value of 0.596.Second,the driving mechanism of the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry is a huge system,which has formed a three-dimensional structure of government,market,and farming subjects through sorting out.In theory,environmental regulation at the government level(including incentive environmental regulation and restrictive environmental regulation),the embedding of the social service organization at the market level,and the perceived value at the farming subject level(including perceived benefits and perceived risks)are the key factors that drive the green transformation of dairy production and thus promote the green transformation of the dairy farming industry.These key factors will also indirectly drive the green transformation of dairy farming industry through multiple paths.Third,based on the field survey of 578 dairy farms in 12 provinces(cities,districts)in China,and the empirical test of direct and indirect effects based on various econometric methods,it is concluded that government environmental regulation,social service organization embeddedness,and the perceived value of farming subjects are all the direct driving factors for the green transformation of dairy production,and incentive environmental regulation,restrictive environmental regulation,social service organization embeddedness,perceived benefits can significantly improve the level of green transformation of dairy production,while perceived risks have a significant negative impact effect.At the same time,multiple indirect driving paths have been verified,among which: The choice of green technology and changes in governance investment have significant mediating effects between incentive environmental regulation and green transformation of dairy farming subject production,as well as between restrictive environmental regulation and green transformation of dairy farming subject production;the degree of embedding of socialized service organizations will indirectly affect the green transformation of dairy farming subject production through pollution control cost control,introduction of green technologies,and improvement of human capital structure;the adoption of socialized services plays a mediating role between perceived value and the green transformation of dairy farming subject production,while government environmental regulations play a moderating role between the two.Fourth,based on empirical research and using the scenario analysis method,multiple scenario combinations are set with 2021 as the base period to predict the changes in the green transformation of the dairy farming industry by 2025.The aim is to find the best combination strategy and achieve the green transformation goal of the dairy farming industry by 2025.The results indicate that some scenario combinations can achieve the expected goal of green transformation in the dairy farming industry when there is a single change in government environmental regulations,the embedding of social service organizations,and the perceived value variables of breeding entities.However,most of these combinations require variables to be in a high-speed growth state to achieve theoretical expectations,which poses significant pressure on the government,social service organizations,and breeding entities.Only when the government,social service organizations,and breeding entities collaborate to improve their behavior and fully unleash the potential of different entities to promote green transformation,can the green transformation of the dairy farming industry better achieve the expected goals?Fifth,the construction of the driving mechanism for the green transformation of the Chinese dairy farming industry stems from the theoretical and empirical research on the green transformation of the dairy farming industry.Adhering to the basic principles of combining macroeconomic regulation with market mechanisms,technological innovation with efficient utilization,adapting to local conditions with key promotion,and combining publicity and guidance with management services,adhering to the principle of "division of labor and cooperation,each fulfilling their responsibilities",we will build a scientific and effective government guidance mechanism,an efficient service organization embedding mechanism,and an active participation mechanism for breeding entities.It is an effective means to accelerate the realization of the strategic goal of green transformation in the dairy farming industry.At the same time,it is necessary to establish a sound evaluation system for the green transformation of the dairy farming industry,optimize the regulatory system for the dairy farming environment,cultivate a diversified social service organization system,and implement a green farming responsibility system for dairy farming entities to ensure the effective operation of the driving mechanism.Facing the future,the train of high-quality development of the Chinese economy will continue to start steadily and orderly,and the proposition of green,low-carbon,and environmental protection will continue to deepen.Building a modernization of harmonious coexistence between humans and nature and comprehensively promoting the green transformation of economic and social development is the core of the main economic battlefield in the future,which also indicates that,one of the key tasks of high-quality economic development in the future is to solve environmental pollution in-depth and achieve quality and efficiency improvement in collaboration.As one of the important industries to "meet the dietary and nutritional needs of the people",the dairy cattle breeding industry should work with economic development thinking to accelerate the green transformation and move forward to high-quality development.From the perspective of academic research,we should continue to pay attention to the green transformation of the dairy farming industry in the future,adhere to the combination of theory and practice,adhere to the interdisciplinary integration,adhere to the in-depth excavation of key cases and typical cases,and contribute to the green development plan of the dairy farming industry for the comprehensive green transformation of economic society.