Research Of Green Development Potential In Jiangsu Province Based On System Dynamic Model

Green development is a new type of development mode which is proposed to deal with global environmental problems and economic crisis,while green development potential is the potential space of green growth.It is vital to identify the effective green path by strengthening the research of green development potential,so as to accelerate regional green transformation faster and better.However,green development system involves a wide range of fields,and different fields interact with each other,so it is crucial to balance the development of all fields.To avoid incomplete consideration in green policy making,we need to evaluate green development level in a comprehensive way and explore green development path with a dynamic and systematic perspective.Based on the literature review of green development and system dynamics,this paper put forward the definition and research framework of green development potential,and took Jiangsu province as a research case to reveal the key of regional green development potential.It included three parts as follows:Firstly,we analyzed the current situation of regional development,constructed the evaluation index system of green development,and got the weight of each indexes by using entropy method,after that,we calculated the results of green development indexes from 2010 to 2017,and analyzed the green development trend.Secondly,we divided the green development system into four parts,including economic subsystems,social subsystems,resource subsystems and eco-environment subsystems,then we designed the green development simulation model of Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2030 by analyzing the causal relationship and mathematical relationship among different subsystems and variables,and the test results show that the model is stable and effective.Finally,we selected several indicators from industrial structure optimization,energy structure optimization and investment management to set up different combination schemes for simulation,and we analyzed the impact of different parameters of green development system to get some meaningful suggestions.The results show that:(1)In recent years,the green development of Jiangsu province has achieved good grades with most indicators got good grades,while energy consumption,industrial solid waste emissions per unit industrial output value and the discharge of domestic waste per capita increased,we need to take more focus on energy consumption control and solid waste management.(2)By optimizing the industrial structure and strengthening the pollution control could greatly reducing pollutant discharge,so as to enhance the regional green development potential obviously,and the scheme of clean energy utilization and scientific and technological innovation shows relatively small promotion effect on the green development potential,the comprehensive adjustment scheme combined optimizing industrial structure,optimizing energy structure,strengthening pollution control,strengthening scientific and technological innovation has the most obvious effect on the promotion of green development index,which is the best choice to enhance the regional green development potential.Regional green development system is a complex system which includes economy subsystems,society subsystems,resources subsystems and eco-environment subsystems,this paper established a research framework by combining green development index and system dynamics model to explore potential of green development.The methodology proves to be feasible after the case study of Jiangsu province.