Study On The Potential Impact Of Carbon Border Regulation Tariff On Chinese Steel Products Export To EU Member States

Environmental and climate issues are related to the sustainable development of the world.In 2015,the Paris Climate Summit proposed emission reduction plans.China has also pledged to strive for a peak in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.It can be seen that the issue of “carbon tariff”has been a hot spot of global concern.In fact,the practice of “carbon tariff ”has a long history.For example,in 2007,France first proposed to apply carbon tariff to climate policy to maintain industrial competitiveness.As environmental and climate issues continue to capture the world's attention,European and American countries have also put forward proposals in recent years.In 2008,the EU proposed an “aviation tariff” to levy the carbon emissions of airlines flying within the EU,which was opposed by many countries.At the end of 2019,the EU put forward the?Green New Deal?to introduce a carbon border regulation tariff mechanism through legislation.On March 10,2021,the EU Parliament voted to adopt the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),and published and adopted the draft legislation at the end of June.It is planned to be implemented in 2023.Based on the proposed carbon border regulation tariff,this paper explores the impact of the implementation of carbon border regulation tariff on international trade.Carbon border regulation tariff is mainly levied on high-carbon imported products,and China's steel products are high-carbon products,and occupy a large share in the EU market.No matter in what form imposition of tariffs will have an impact on the competitiveness of China's steel products.This paper collected and analyzed the steel trade data between China and the EU from 2000 to 2014(the data of VAT payable in China was missing after 2015).From the volume of trade,the steel trade between China and the EU increased year by year before 2008,and then decreased,but still occupied a large proportion in the EU steel market.The paper introduces two explanatory variables,unit carbon tax and per capita carbon emissions,on the classical trade gravity model.Based on the existing data,the influence of China's steel products exported to EU countries is estimated.The main conclusions are as follows:If per capita carbon dioxide emissions increase by 1%,China's steel exports to the EU will decrease by 5.75%;Each 1% increase in unit carbon tax will reduce China's steel exports to the EU by 3.23%,and all of them pass the significance level test of 5%.Combined with the empirical results,the policy recommendations of this paper include: improving the energy efficiency of the steel industry,increasing energy conservation and emission reduction;Steadily promote the development of a national carbon market;Strengthen the transformation and upgrading of China's steel industry,enhance international competitiveness,and take the initiative to deal with the potential impact of carbon border regulation tariff.The innovation of this paper mainly lies in quantitative analysis.By referring to existing academic achievements and adding two variables of per capita carbon emissions and unit carbon tax,it builds an expanded trade gravity model to study the steel trade between China and Europe,which has certain reference significance for China to effectively respond to the carbon border regulation mechanism.