| Throughout the domestic steel situation,the contradiction of steel overcapacity is still prominent.The output of pig iron,crude steel and steel in China has increased from 553 million tons,572 million tons,694 million tons to 808 million tons,995 million tons,and1.205 billion tons respectively,from 2009 to 2019.However,contrary to the increasing steel production is the weak domestic steel demand and the continuous strengthening of domestic resource and environmental constraints.Throughout the international situation: on the one hand,the global economy is still recovering because the in-depth impact of the international financial crisis has not completely subsided;and the global economy recover weakly because the impact of COVID-19 spread.On the other hand,there is no doubt that the rise of protectionism and the downturn in international trade put forward higher requirements for the development of Chinese steel industry.In the 14 th Five-Year Plan,China puts forward the goals of promoting high-quality development of the Belt and Road(B&R),and deepening the development of international production capacity cooperation.Coordinating the overall strategic situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and major changes in the world unseen in a century,relying on B&R countries to promote the transformation and upgrading of China’s steel industry,and deepen China’s steel international production capacity cooperation is an inevitable move to meet the development requirements of the new era.First of all,this thesis points the necessity and feasibility of steel production capacity cooperation between China and B&R countries by combing relevant literature and theories,analyzing the current situation of China’s steel industry supply and demand,the international competitiveness of China’s steel industry,the steel demand of B&R countries,and the status quo of China’s steel international trade and international investment.Secondly,this thesis analyzes the status quo and influencing factors of China’s steel production capacity cooperation with B&R countries from investment and trade aspects.Taking the period from 2013 to 2019 as the observation period,firstly,it analyzes the factors that affect the Chinese companies’ steel investment in B&R countries by discussing the status quo of steel investment.Secondly,by constructing a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model,it studies the factors that affect Chinese companies’ steel trade in B&R countries and measures the efficiency and potential of trade cooperation.It shows that: first,in terms of investment,the outward direct investment of Chinese companies in the steel sector mainly tend to countries with rich mineral resources,and foreign contracted projects mainly tend to countries with large infrastructure construction needs.At the same time,the host country’s relationship with China,its cultural and geographic distance from China,and the host country’s policies to attract foreign investment will also have an impact on the investment intentions of Chinese companies.Second,in terms of trade,geographical distance and economic freedom of partner countries will hinder the development of steel trade between Chinese companies’ and B&R countries.Otherwise,the common language,the level of transportation infrastructure,free trade agreements,and the internationalization of the RMB can promote the development of steel trade between China and B&R countries.On the whole,China’s steel trade with B&R countries is relatively inefficient,and the trade potential has not been fully exploited yet.Specifically,from a country perspective,China’s steel trade efficiency with countries such as Vietnam,Georgia,and the UAE was relatively high;and its trade efficiency with countries such as Slovakia,Hungary,and Moldova was relatively low in 2019.From a regional perspective,the average trade efficiency of Asia is relatively high,especially the efficiency of steel trade between Southeast Asia and China has been at a high level;the average trade efficiency of Europe is low,especially the efficiency of steel trade between Central Europe and China has been at a low level.Thirdly,according to the factors that affect the steel production capacity cooperation between China and B&R countries determines the selection criteria for the pivotal countries.Regarding Southeast Asia as a key region for steel production capacity cooperation.Indonesia and Vietnam,Iran,Kazakhstan,Bangladesh,Romania,Russia,and Poland are regarded as the pivot countries of Southeast Asia,the Middle East,Central Asia and East Asia,South Asia,Southern Europe,Eastern Europe,and Central Europe respectively in the seven regions for steel production capacity cooperation.Finally,based on the pivotal country,this thesis puts forward policy recommendations for deepening the steel production capacity cooperation between China and B&R countries.First,continue to deepen trade cooperation,explore ways to strengthen investment cooperation.When building a pivot country for cooperation in steel production capacity,it is necessary to take into account both steel industrial transfer and product export.It is supposed to deepen trade cooperation continuously,while strengthening cooperation in the investment field.Second,priority should be given to pivot countries,and forming a pattern of interconnected development.It is not only necessary to select and build a pivot country,but more importantly,to develop the pivot country into a mature hub and give full play to its role of agglomeration and radiation.Third,continue to deepen the Asian market and explore ways to expand the European market.The European market should be radiated and expanded based on deepening the Asian market continuously by giving full play to the advantages of pivot countries and key cooperation regions.Eventually,local regional cooperation will be gradually developed to the whole region cooperation in the steel industry,and the goal of deepening cooperation in steel production capacity with B&R countries will be achieved. |
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