Effects Of Climate Change On Climate Suitability Of Green Orange Planting In Hainan Island

Green orange is one of the typical fruits in Hainan Island,plays an important role in the local agricultural production,but few researches are available concerning green orange planting climate suitability fine zoning in the island.Climate is an important factor affecting the growth,yield and quality of crops,therefore,crop climate suitability and its changing trends are receiving more and more attentions under global climate change.With the construction of free trade port in the island,climate changing,the development of science and technology as well as green agricultural production,the original zoning results can no longer meet the new requirements of agricultural production with scientific and rational,accurate and sustainable development.Based on the past 40 a(1980-2019)daily meteorological data and topographical and other elements from 19 meteorological stations in the main island of Hainan Island,this study established a spatial analysis model to comprehensively determine the climatic suitability of green orange planting indicators,based on the change trend of climate resources in different growing periods of green orange.The climate suitability models were used to build green orange planting temperature,sunshine,precipitation and comprehensive suitability models,for each decade for a time node of climate resources data interpolation analysis.Using GIS technology comprehensive analysis,natural point break method was used for green orange planting climate suitability of fine zoning,and the next30a(2020-2049)climate change scenarios by RCP4.5 climate scenario model was adopted to predict the future trend of green orange planting suitable zone in the island.The results show that:(1)Spatial and temporal changes of climate resources in different growing periods of green orange in the islandThe overall distribution of heat resource for green orange is in the order of central