Simulation And Analysis Of Habitat Suitability Of Red-crowned Cranes Supported By Maximum Entropy Model And Information Entropy Model

Due to the construction of water conservancy projects and roads at all levels,the fragmentation of landscape patches in Zhalong wetland has destroyed the original ecosystem of Zhalong Wetland and caused the degradation and shrinkage of reed wetland,which is a great challenge for the protection of rare waterfowl.As a rare waterfowl,Red Crowned Crane is sensitive to environmental change,and,red-crowned cranes have a clear tendency to choose nest sites in zhalong wetland.Therefore,the analysis of habitat suitability of Red-crowned cranes can reflect the needs of species and predict the potential distribution,so as to provide a basis for the protection of endangered wild animals.Taking Zhalong wetland as the research object,this paper selects 14 Landsat series remote sensing images from 1996 to 2019,combined with the coordinates of Redcrowned cranes’ nest sites in Zhalong Wetland in 1996,2003 and 2004 obtained from field investigation,so as to simulate the coordinates of Red-crowned cranes’ nest sites site from 2009 to 2019 through binary logistic regression model.Then,Max Ent model is used to simulate the habitat suitability of Red-crowned cranes in Zhalong Wetland from2009 to 2019.At the same time,time information entropy model and time series information entropy model are used to analyze the change intensity and trend of habitat suitability,and the habitat suitability of Red-crowned cranes in Zhalong wetland is comprehensively evaluated by analyzing the change trend of various important influencing factors.The analysis results are as follows:（1）Through accuracy verification,when simulating habitat suitability in years without sample parameters,the accuracy of binary logistic regression model and Max Ent fitting model is higher than that of binary logistic regression and Max Ent model.Max Ent model and time information entropy model have relatively high simulation accuracy for the distribution and change of biological habitat suitability,and can calculate the contribution rate of influencing factors.Therefore,the collaborative analysis of the two models is suitable for the continuous habitat suitability analysis and provides data support for the analysis of interannual variability.（2）Through time information entropy,the distribution characteristics of habitat suitability change intensity of Red-crowned cranes in Zhalong wetland are that the center of the core area is high and gradually decreases from the center of the core area to the periphery.The adjusting function of the wetland itself in the core area and some surrounding areas is more active,so the change intensity is high;in the periphery of the wetland,the degree of damage is high,which is not suitable for Red-crowned cranes to build nests all year round,so the change intensity is low.（3）According to the information entropy of time series,the change trend of habitat suitability of Red-crowned cranes in Zhalong wetland is characterized by local growth in the south,local decline in the north,and stability in most peripheral areas.The significantly improved and improved area reached 20.1% of the total area of Zhalong wetland,mostly concentrated in some areas in the South and north of Zhalong wetland.The significantly worse and worse area accounted for 16.3% of the total area of Zhalong wetland,while the habitat suitability of the remaining 63.6% remained basically unchanged.The living area of Red-crowned cranes in Zhalong Wetland visually gradually moves to the south of Zhalong Wetland and may gradually exceed the core area,which provides a data basis for the protection of Red-crowned cranes.（4）Through the analysis of influencing factors,it is determined and quantified that the main influencing factors of Red Crowned Crane Habitat Suitability in Zhalong wetland are landscape type,distribution of rivers and ditches and vegetation coverage.In edge of Zhalong wetland that is mostly cultivated land,saline alkali land and grassland,the habitat suitability of Red-crowned cranes is poor,and it is difficult to improve in a short time,that is,the change trend and intensity tend to remain unchanged.In the south of Zhalong wetland,the transformation of a large number of open water,wet meadows and grasslands to wetlands with and without surface water is the main reason for the growth of habitat suitability in the south.In the north of Zhalong wetland,surface water wetlands,wetlands without surface water and meadows turned into grassland,resulting in the decrease of habitat suitability in the North year by year.