Simulation Research On The Dynamic Environmental And Economic Impact Of Agricultural Straw Resources Utilization In Hebei Province

Straw is a green and renewable biomass resource,which has various uses.However,the unreasonable treatment of straw can also damage the ecological environment.Hebei Province,as one of the important grain-producing provinces in China,has abundant straw resources.Also as an ecological protection zone around the capital,it also bears the burden of protecting the ecological environment.The rational use of straw resources has become an urgent problem for governmental departments to solve.This paper constructs a dynamic optimal model of straw resource-economy-envir onment-energy system in Hebei Province based on input-output model and multi-obj ective optimization evaluation method.The dynamic optimal model contains one obj ective function and four constraint models,one objective function is to maximize th e regional GDP,and the four constraint models are socio-economic model,straw res ource model,energy model,and air pollutant emission model.The socio-economic model describes the relationship between capital input and output in the industry;th e straw resource model describes the relationship between socio-economic and straw resource generation;the energy model describes the relationship between socio-econ omic and energy supply and demand for straw resource treatment;the air pollutant emission model describes the emission of socio-economic development,and four poll utants,NO_x,SO₂,CO and PM_2.5,are mainly selected.Based on different combinations of policies and environmental constraints,four scenarios were set up.And Lingo software is used to simulate the scenarios,the simulation period is2017-2035,a total of 18 years.Base scenario:the adoption of subsidized industrial restructuring policy,straw harvesting,storage and transportation subsidy policy,and straw agricultural machinery subsidy policy under 20%air pollutant reduction.The improvement scenario one is to add the straw new technology subsidy policy to the base scenario.Improvement scenario II is to change the environmental emission reduction target of improvement scenario I.Improved Scenario 3 is to change the environmental reduction target of Improved Scenario 2.The simulation results show that the improved scenario II basically achieves the complete disposal of straw resources,the optimization of atmospheric environment,the largest total socio-economic development and the highest growth rate.Therefore,Scenario II is selected as the optimal scenario.In the model prediction of the optimalscenario,the average annual growth rate of the economy of Hebei Province during the 18-year simulation period from 2017 to 2035 is 4.9%,and the total economic volume is 99.8 trillion yuan;a total of 1.9 billion tons of straw resources are disposed of,and the financial subsidy for straw resources disposal is 624.7 billion yuan,and the economic output value of straw resources disposal is 1.4 trillion yuan,accounting for the output value of the primary industry 10.51%.In the simulation period of 18 years,Hebei Province through the use of straw resources to reduce emissions of a total of 38.02 million tons of air pollutants,straw treatment carbon emission reduction reached a total of 2.877 billion tons.The treatment of straw resources has high economic and environmental benefits.