| Traditional flood forecasting plays a role in disaster relief,flood control and power generation to a certain extent through mature hydrological model.However,the traditional flood forecasting based on rainfall is not timely enough,and the scheduling decision can not reach the optimal,which leads to serious waste of flood resources.In view of the above problems,this paper takes Huanren Reservoir as the research object,and selects the precipitation forecast data collected by ECMWF Meteorological Center as the input value of flood forecast model to carry out flood forecast and power generation dispatching.The main results are as follows:(1)Through the review and analysis of the representativeness,reliability and consistency of the hydrological data collected from the Provincial Hydrological Bureau and the automatic forecasting station,through the precipitation cumulative line diagram method,the comparison method of long and short series of statistical parameters and the daily maximum error comparison,it can be concluded that the statistical data has high credibility,and with the passage of time,the applicability of the original hydrological data is better,The underlying surface of Huanren basin has not changed greatly.(2)The precipitation forecast event is abstracted as binary event.The forecast rainfall data of 1-5 days are evaluated by CSI score,Bias score,HR-FAR value comparison,Ranking distribution histogram and Brier score.The daily rainfall process of ensemble forecast and control forecast value is compared.The results show that the applicability of basin area rainfall obtained from forecast results is good;The mean value of ensemble forecast can be modified by reference to the control forecast data.(3)According to the climate characteristics,underlying surface conditions,confluence characteristics and other natural factors of Huanren basin,the rain flood forecasting model is established by using the Xin'anjiang model of full storage and runoff yield and unit line confluence.Through the historical measured data,the objective optimization of parameter calibration is completed,the process of full storage runoff generation is simulated,and the confluence calculation is carried out according to the historical unit hydrograph and the new unit hydrograph obtained by trial and error analysis method.The results show that the qualified rate of the rain flood forecast model is 88%,and the forecast accuracy reaches grade A;The fitting degree of inflow flood hydrograph is high,the DC value rate of certainty coefficient is0.78 regularly,the test period is 0.79,and the forecast accuracy of the forecast scheme is grade B.Official forecasts can be issued.(4)Taking the mean value of Perturbed forecast as the input value of flood forecast model,15 flood processes were forecasted according to the forecast period of 1-5 days.The results show that the prediction accuracy of 1d and 2d before correction is higher,which is grade B;The overall trend of rainfall and flood forecast of 3dand above has a certain reference value,but it can not be used in the forecast work.The result of 3d prediction is improved after correction,and the accuracy of 3d prediction is up to grade B.Finally,based on the 1 ? 3d modified precipitation forecast data,the pre discharge operation decision of the reservoir is made.The results show that: referring to the decision-making of reservoir pre discharge based on rainfall forecast,full power generation in the early stage and storage in the later stage can reduce the abandoned water and increase the power generation of field flood,and ensure the reservoir water level to be stored near the normal water level after the end of field flood,without affecting the regulation capacity of the reservoir for subsequent rainfall. |
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