Research Of The Flood Forecasting And Dispatching Of Biliuhe Basin

Floods are one of the major natural disasters facing our country.The shortage of water resources is one of the major challenges facing our country,which has brought great losses to industrial and agricultural production and threatened human life.Reservoirs as the main engineering measures,flood forecasting as an important non-engineering measures,their combination can effectively reduce the flood disaster and improve the efficiency of water use.With the development of social economy,the construction of some water conservancy projects in the basin has brought new challenges to flood forecasting.For the downstream reservoirs with flood control requirements,the use of forecast information,considering the combination of flooding with the interval is the key technology to improve the safety of flood control and flood resources utilization.At present,the flood forecasting scheme of Biliuhe reservoir is not high,and there is a lack of available forecasting scheme in the downstream section.The existing forecasting and dispatching scheme is not enough to consider the flood of interval.Therefore,it is necessary to rethink the reservoir flood forecasting scheme and formulate the flood forecasting scheme in the downstream section.On this basis,the rule of the forecasting and dispatching rules considering the interval flood process is studied.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Respectively,using the DHF model and XAJ model to simulate the 15 floods in the natural period of Biliuhe Reservoir,and use the genetic algorithm combined with manual debugging to optimize the parameters,and use the two models to separate the parameters.The simulation results show that the qualified rate of runoff is 93.3% and 100% respectively,and the convergence rate is 80% and 86.7% respectively.The results are satisfactory.Since the flood process line simulated by XAJ model is in good agreement with this,The calculation of the XAJ model is used for future application analysis.(2)Based on the nine floods after the establishment of Yushi Reservoir,combined with daily model and daily water supply,the water balance is used to estimate the effect of water conservancy project,and an improved method of calculating the runoff model is put forward.And then the rationality of the forecast results is verified according to information of rainfall,evaporation,pre-soil moisture content and remote sensing.The results show that the improved model can effectively increase the flood forecasting accuracy of Biliuhe Reservoir,and the qualified rate is 88.8%,which is of great significance to the flood control of the reservoir.(3)Based on the lumped DHF model and the semi-distributed HEC-HMS model,the models are used to simulate the downstream floods and determine the parameters.The qualified rate is 83.3% and 66.6% respectively.This paper chooses a more applicable DHF model for subsequent application analysis.(4)The flood control section is used as the control section,and the accumulated rainfall information is taken as the main index,the reservoir water level and the storage flow as the auxiliary index to change the discharge capacity.And respectively,developing the scheduling rules based on different district design The maximum discharge,the highest water level,The downstream flood control section combined flow is less than the original program flood control results,and meet the flood control requirements.And selecting the more unfavorable scheduling program to guide the subsequent scheduling work,and thus ensure the safety of reservoirs and downstream flood control objectives.