| In this paper,taking Taoer River Basin as the research object,aiming at the characteristics of water resources in the study area and the contradiction between supply and demand of water,combined with the background of local water system connectivity,the risk analysis of flood resources utilization system is carried out,and the main conclusions are as follows:(1)The main ways and principles of flood resources utilization at present are summarized.On the premise of ensuring the ecological security and flood safety of river basins,the benefits should be increased as much as possible,and the reservoirs,flood storage and detention areas and river canals should be utilized by comprehensive application of engineering measures and non-engineering measures to reduce water abandonment.Taking Taoer River Basin as an example,a set of flood resource utilization process is constructed.First,the frequency calculation of self-produced water volume and transit water volume in the basin is carried out,and the water resources volume of each design frequency(50%,33.3%,20%,10%,5%,2%,1%)is obtained.Then,combined with the water demand in the basin,the water demand of each design frequency in the basin is obtained,and then combined with the water storage in the basin.At last,the flood resource utilization schemes at various design frequencies in the basin are formulated.By comparing the schemes,it can be seen that the flood once every three years can meet the demand of flood resource utilization under the current engineering conditions.When the flood occurs once every 20 years or more,priority should be given to ensuring flood control safety,and strengthening the overall planning of the basin to carry out flood fighting and disaster relief.(2)The impact of flood resources utilization is analyzed.Firstly,the river flow after water diversion is analyzed,and it is found that the water retained in the river after water diversion can meet the ecological water demand of the river and other water demand requirements.Then,the influence of water diversion in the water diversion area is analyzed,and it is found that the wetland area is enlarged after water diversion in the water diversion area,and certain economic benefits are produced.Finally,the flood encounter of Taoer River and Nenjiang River is analyzed,and the influence range of floods with the same design frequency is analyzed by using GIS,hydrological analysis and RS processing.It is found that the flooded proportion of cultivated land,beaches and swamps is the highest,while the flooded proportion of grassland and forest land is the smallest.(3)Combining the advantages of FTA and FAHP methods,the risk of flood resources utilization system is analyzed by coupling them.Firstly,the fault tree model of flood resources utilization system is established by using the method of logical deduction,and based on this model,the hierarchical analysis model of flood resources utilization system is built.Then,the fuzzy matrix of AHP is established and the consistency is judged,and finally the weight of each basic event is calculated.The results show that insufficient emergency rescue capability,low design standard and over-standard flood have the greatest weight on flood resources utilization system. |
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