Prediction Of Grain Yield In Hunan Province Based On Grey Markov Model

Food is a major issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.With the changes in various factors affecting food production,it is extremely urgent to analyze and predict its changing trend.This paper will study the food production in Hunan Province from the following two aspects:On the one hand,it is a simple way to analyze the present situation of grain production in Hunan province,and then to analyze the factors that affect the grain production in Hunan province by using the improved generalized gray correlation analysis method.Finally,the main factors that affect the grain production in Hunan province are grain production,the planting area of grain crops,the amount of fertilizer used,the effective irrigation area,the rural electricity consumption and the agricultural workers.On the other hand,the AGM(1,1)model is established on the basis of the GM(1,1)model and is optimized;then,according to the data of the grain output in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2016,the grain output data of 17 years is divided into two parts,and part of the grain output data from 2000 to 2011 is used as the raw data,The other is to use the GM(1,1)model,the improved AGM(1,1)model and the improved unbiased grey Markov model to forecast the grain output in Hunan Province.At last,the prediction accuracy of the three models is compared,and the prediction accuracy of the improved unbiased grey Markov model of the metabolism is stronger than that of the improved AGM(1,1)model,and the prediction accuracy of the AGM(1,1)model is stronger than that of the GM(1,1)model.The improved unbiased grey Markov model of metabolism is more suitable for the short-term prediction of grain yield.