Research On The Temporal And Spatial Characteristics Of The Impact Of ENSO On Farmers' Welfare Based On Stochastic CGE Model

ENSO(El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation,El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation)is a climatic phenomenon in which the wind field and sea surface temperature oscillates in the equatorial eastern Pacific,and a large-scale air-sea interaction in the equatorial Pacific loses its balance.Climate change,floods and droughts in large-scale areas such as the Indian Ocean and surrounding continents have important impacts.It will cause severe climate anomalies on a global scale,such as droughts,floods,and low-temperature damage to many parts of the world.And it bring huge losses to agricultural production.Therefore,it has attracted widespread attention from scholars and governments.ENSO indirectly affects China climate in the form of "tele-correlation" through atmospheric circulation,which in turn affects agricultural production and farmers' living.During the ENSO year,extreme weather occurred frequently in China,precipitation was unevenly distributed,and agricultural development was hampered.How to measure the uncertain changes in farmers' welfare caused by climate,especially the impact of extreme weather on agricultural production and farmers' welfare is a matter of great concern to the agricultural sector.This paper takes climate change as an influencing factor.It establishes an ENSO agricultural production stochastic CGE model and analyzes the impact of ENSO on the welfare of farmers in various regions of China.First,it analyzes the occurrence of the ENSO incident in China,dividing the areas affected by the ENSO incident in China to find out related agricultural indicators and determine the measurement standards for farmers' welfare.Secondly,it analyzes the impact mechanism between ENSO and agricultural production,and establishes a CGE model framework that can analyze the economic impact of ENSO events.Then the CGE model is randomized and improved,random parameters are added to the model,and the Gaussian quadrature is used to evaluate the stability of the model.Then put forward the scenarios of changes in farmers' welfare under different ENSO events and different response measures.The results of the study show that:(1)ENSO events of ordinary intensity have little effect on farmers' income and welfare.Under strong ENSO events,the level of farmers' welfare declines even more.The level of farmers' welfare in the southwest has fallen the most.The level of the farmers welfare in the northeast fallen the least.(2)In the case of early warning information,the market responds to the ENSO incident,causing the loss of farmers' welfare,which is very similar to the situation without early warning.(3)When there is early warning information,the government responds to the ENSO incident and increases the transfer payment,which will increase the level of farmers' welfare,and the higher the proportion of the government's transfer payment to farmers,the greater the improvement in the level of farmers' welfare.The level of farmers' welfare in the Southwest is most affected by government transfer payments.(4)After the end of the ENSO incident,under the influence of economic development,the welfare of farmers can be quickly restored in the second year.(5)The unpredictable ENSO event has a great impact on the stability of farmers' welfare.The uncertainty of El Ni(?)o's impact on farmers' welfare has fluctuated more than200%,and the fluctuations experienced by all regions are roughly the same.The greatest impact is in the southern coastal areas.Based on the research results,this article puts forward the following suggestions:(1)Strengthen the modernization of agriculture,and carry out regional policy support for agriculture.(2)Continue studying in depth the occurrence of extreme weather.(3)Continuously improve the weather forecasting system,building and improving the supporting comprehensive agricultural economic early warning mechanism.(4)Establish a short-term and long-term dual-effect intervention mechanism.