Prediction Of Future Risk Of Extreme Heat Events In Eastern China And Their Impact On Electricity Consumption

This paper investigates the detection and attribution of extreme temperature events and its potential impacts on Electricity Consumption in eastern China using CN05.1high-resolution observations and global climate models participating in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Program(CMIP5).Historical simulation experiments under different forcing experiment are first used to attribute extreme high temperature changes in historical periods and quantify the impact of human activities on the probability of extreme high temperature occurrence.Since climate models have systematic biases in regional climate simulations,the models' output is corrected using bias correction methods before future risk projection are made,and the risk changes of extreme heat events in 2013 at 1.5 ? and 2 ? warming are further investigated.Also,the risk of occurrence of extreme high temperature events at 20-year,50-year and 100-year for the historical period is given.The relationship between the number of days of extreme high temperature,intensity of extreme high temperature and electricity consumption in different provinces of China from 1995 to 2017 is investigated,and the changes of extreme high temperature index under different warming conditions in eastern China are analyzed.The main results are as follows:1)A record-breaking extreme high temperature events occurred in central and eastern China in 2013,with most of the hot days in the eastern region exceeding 25 day,and the intensity of extreme heat exceeded 35 ?.The average number of extreme heat days(intensity)occurring once in every 20-year in NAT forcing became once in every 2-year(8-year)in ALL forcing.The number of days(intensity)of extreme high temperature that occurs once in100-year in NAT forcing will become once in 5-year(30-year)in ALL forcing,and the annual maximum temperature that occurs once in 100-year in NAT forcing will become once in33-year in ALL forcing.The change in the risk of extreme heat days for different recurrence periods(20,50,and 100-year events)can be attributed to human activities.2)The risk of extreme high temperature days and intensity in 2013 will increase by 5.6times(12.6 times)and 3.0 times(6.1 times)in 1.5 ?(2 ?)warming climate,respectively.The global warming control to 1.5 ? relative to the global warming of 2.0 ?,the risk of occurrence of extreme high temperature days and intensity can be reduced by nearly half.The probability of future occurrence of risk is related to the rare of the events,the rater of the events,the greater the risk of future occurrence.The risk of occurrence of extreme temperature days is greater than the risk of extreme high temperature intensity.The number of extreme high temperature days in the historical period of 20-year(100-year)will become4-year(15-year)under the future warming of 1.5 ?,and 2-year(6-year)under the warming of2 ?.3)The half-degree increase has a huge impact on electricity consumption.When the number of days with extreme high temperatures in eastern China occurs once in 20 years,the electricity consumption at a temperature increases of 2 ? is about 50.2 billion k Wh more than that at a temperature increase of 1.5 ?.The climatic average value of electricity consumption is affected by the background of warming.The higher the temperature,the greater the electricity consumption.Under the same climate,the number of days with extreme high temperature has a stronger impact on electricity consumption than the intensity of extreme high temperature.