| Water resources are an extremely important strategic resource in Guyuan City,and it has an incomparable position with other resources in terms of economic development.However,the shortage of water resources and uneven distribution of time and space in Guyuan City have affected the sustainable development of the city’s society and economy.Therefore,studying the current situation of water resources and the potential of water resources development in Guyuan City is of great significance to the sound development of local society,economy,agriculture and ecology.Based on the actual situation of Guyuan City,this paper establishes the evaluation system of the water resources status of Guyuan City,and constructs the rainfall change system of Guyuan City from the perspective of time series and spatial distribution.Calculate the utilization potential of water resources in Guyuan City based on the actual situation,and analyze the benefits of the potential development of water resources from the three perspectives of economic benefits,ecological benefits and social benefits.The main research results of this paper are as follows:1.The precipitation in Guyuan City does not change significantly,and the mutation in the time series occurred in 1984.At the same time,in terms of spatial distribution,all counties and districts in Guyuan City,except Jingyuan County,have a large degree of water resource development,and the degree of water resource utilization will be relatively small in the future.There are 18,12,9 and 3 main cycles in the precipitation sequence of Guyuan City,and the peak corresponding to the time scale of 18 years is the largest,so the first main cycle of the annual rainfall in this area is 18 years.The water resources of Guyuan City are affected by economic development factors,water supply-demand balance factors and natural factors.The overall carrying capacity shows a trend of decreasing year by year,and the development and utilization of water resources has approached the endurable limit.The shortage of water resources in Guyuan City will be more serious and the contradiction between supply and demand in this city will continue to intensify in the future.2.The M-K test method and the sliding t test method were used to analyze that the precipitation change in Guyuan City was not significant,and the sudden change in the time series occurred in 1984.In terms of spatial distribution,all counties and districts in Guyuan City,except Jingyuan County,have a high degree of water resource development,and the utilization of water resources will be weak in the future.Through wavelet analysis,it is found that there are main periods of 18,12,9 and 3 in the precipitation sequence of Guyuan City.The peak value of the corresponding time scale is the largest in 18 years,so the first main period of annual rainfall in this area is 18 years.Using load index method,principal component analysis method and ecological water footprint method to analyze and calculate it,it is obtained that the water resources of Guyuan City are affected by economic development factors,water supply and demand balance factors and natural factors,and the overall carrying capacity has shown a decrease year by year.The conclusion that the development and utilization of water resources is close to the endurable limit.The shortage of water resources in Guyuan is more serious,and the contradiction between supply and demand will continue to intensify in the future.3.The benefits of comprehensive utilization of urban rainfall resources in Guyuan City are analyzed in three aspects:economy,society and environment.The results of the benefit analysis show that the rainfall utilization in Guyuan City not only has considerable economic benefits,but also has large ecological and environmental benefits.It is of great significance to carry out comprehensive utilization of rainfall resources in Guyuan City. |
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