Research On The Effects Of China's Agricultural Products Export Trade Under FTA Strategy

Although in recent years,led by the United States and Britain,the western countries in a global reverse the trend of globalization and Trade protectionism has a rise trend,but as a Free Trade Area(Free Trade Area,the FTA)represented by the regional economic integration in the process of its development is still the universal recognition of the world,of which the European and American countries dominated the European Union,North America Free Trade Area such as representative's most high-profile regional integration development,this for regional economic development in emerging countries provides a template.As of November 2019,there are 255 FTAs in force in the world,and China has been actively participating in the construction of FTAs.At present,China has signed 18 FTAs with 24 countries and regions,12 of which are under negotiation and 8 are under study.China chose FTA development object has a pair and the characteristics of more is given priority to with the surrounding neighboring countries,this characteristic makes before sign agreement with the majority of the partners in China has been a important agricultural product trade partner,after signing and promote trade liberalization policies can make the agricultural trade between the two countries more frequently,but may also be made in China's agricultural products trade at a disadvantage with partners.The trade effect of FTA has also attracted the attention of scholars,who put forward new ideas on the future development path of FTA by studying whether the next country in FTA strategy will produce trade creation or trade diversion effect.In this paper,agricultural products are divided into 22 categories according to the two-digit classification standard of the International Trade Standard Classification.Based on the agricultural trade data between China and other countries in the world during the period of 2001-2017,firstly,it studies the development of China's FTA strategy and the current situation of agricultural export trade.Second,in order to have signed FTA with China as an example,the association of south-east Asian nations(ASEAN),Chile and New Zealand to analyze China and three trading partners of agricultural exports competitive and complementary,and will be treated as Chinese FTA partners as a group,not country signing FTA with China as the control group,by propensity score matching filter in front of the FTA strategy implementation similar to Chinese FTA partners of FTA partners as control group to eliminate endogenous after using double difference model of FTA strategy of China's agricultural products export trade effect for empirical analysis;Then,based on present situation analysis,China's trade with FTA partners in front of the competitive and complementary index calculation results and the empirical analysis to get the following conclusions: one is that China and FTA partners expanding agricultural products import and export trade deficit,the second is most kinds of agricultural products in China are lack of competitive and complementary,three under different FTA is China's agricultural products export trade situation,four is FTA strategy of China's agricultural exports has significant effect of trade diversion;Finally,based on the above research and analysis,the following four policy references are provided for the FTA under research and negotiation in China in the agricultural negotiation: Second,to enhance the competitiveness and complementarity of China's agricultural products;Third,China should promote FTA upgrade negotiations and diversify FTA partners.Fourth,the Chinese government needs to improve its negotiating ability in agriculture and seek more preferential policies for Chinese agricultural products to generate trade creation.