Study On The Impact Of Global Trade And Its Structure Change On National Economy And Environment

With the globalization of the world economy,international trade has developed rapidly and has become an important engine for global economic growth.While stimulating the economic growth of all countries,trade has also increased carbon emissions and the consumption of natural resources,which has brought a series of environmental problems.In addition,since the beginning of the 21 st century,as emerging economies such as China participate in international trade,the global trade structure has undergone huge changes,resulting in changes in the production structure of different producer regions,which in turn has resulted in the economic environment of each country.influences.To promote the coordinated and sustainable development of human society and the ecological environment,it is necessary to comprehensively understand the impact of current global trade and its structural changes on the economy and the environment,and mitigate the negative trade-offs between economic development and environmental protection.Previous studies mainly focused on the single environmental factor,failed to comprehensively analyze the multi environmental elements of trade by combining various environmental factors.Also,few studies studied the impact of economic trade pattern change on the environment from the perspective of global trade structure change.Based on this,this study conducts a comprehensive quantitative study the impacts of global trade and its structural changes on national economy and environment.In terms of research methods,based on the multi-region input-output analysis,this paper builds a global trade embodied value-added and environmental cost accounting model framework,and proposes an economic environmental impact accounting method for trade structure changes.In this paper,we consider the impact of global trade on national value-added,carbon emissions,land,water and scarce water,which is based on national water endowments,covering all regions of the world and various major economic and environmental factors.Since the consumption of land,water and scarce water is mainly in the primary industry sector,this paper uses the latest GTAP V9 global input-output database,which not only covers a wider area than other databases,but also contains 14 primary industry sectors with greater accuracy in analyzing embodied land,water and scarce water issues.The main innovative points mainly include:(1)By incorporating multiple environmental factors into multi-regional environmental extended input-output model,a comprehensive quantitative research framework for global trade-related economic and environmental issues was established.This paper empirically studies the impact of global trade on national economy and environment based on the quantitative accounting of the above-mentioned economic and environmental factors,and comparatively analyzes the differences value added and in environmental costs.The study found that China's economic benefits from exports are overestimated by more than 30% based on value-added trade,and China's exports to developed countries such as the United States,Japan,and Western Europe had brought a large amount of carbon emissions and resource consumption.Our results help us deepen understanding of global trade,reduce unnecessary trade costs,and promote more diverse and open trade cooperation.(2)Based on the above-mentioned multi-regional environment extended inputoutput analysis framework,this paper constructs a variety of trade inequity factors based on the economic benefits(value added)of trade and environmental costs(carbon emissions,land use,water consumption,scarcity water consumption).By doing this,we combined national economic benefits with environmental costs,we comprehensively evaluated the gains and losses of countries in global trade.Our results showed that the inequity index of flows between countries and other countries is strongly correlated with the stage of their economic development.The trade flows with higher inequity index mostly occur in the bilateral relations between developing and developed countries.Many developed countries are in a win-win position in trade,that is,they add environmental value to their net exports to transfer environmental costs,thereby benefiting themselves both economically and environmentally.Our results can help identify key unreasonable trade flows and help developing countries gain more from trade.(3)Combined with the input-output analysis framework,this paper further constructs the economic environment impact accounting method for trade structure changes.Based on this,this paper not only quantitatively studies the embodied value added of global trade and environmental cost from the perspective of static trade status.We also analyzed the dynamic trade structure change,this paper studied the current global trade implied value added and environmental cost transfer pattern,and explore the pathways of trade affecting the global economy and the geographical transfer of production sites.The results show that changes in the global trade structure during the study period had positive effects on global economic growth and land conservation,but have negative effects on carbon emission reduction and water conservation.Moreover,the structural changes in this period had positive effects on relatively high-income countries' environment,but further exacerbate environmental problems in developing countries in Asia,South America and Africa.These results help to understand the causes and development trends of the current global trade pattern and provide insights e for global trade structure optimization.At the end,we had further studied the embodied value added and environmental cost of China's trade.Finally,some trade policy recommendations were proposed for China to boost economic benefits and mitigate environmental pressure.