The Impact Research Of Climate Warming On Import Trade Of China’s Agricultural Products

Since1970s, climate change has been much a concern of the international community. In order to protect the global environment, human beings is constantly working together to cope with the effects of climate change on global. Climate warming has caused frequent extreme weather events, which has worsen the growing of environment of crops, and has impacted the agricultural production and the supply of crops. What’s more, through the effect on agriculture industry, climate change can affect agricultural products trade and other related industries, and then threat national and global food security. Agriculture is a basic industry of a country, which affects the survival and development of mankind.The article firstly carries on preliminary judgment to the impact of to global climate warming on agricultural production and agricultural products trade. The preliminary judgment is mainly about the influence of climate warming on crops growth and quality of products, as well as to the price of agricultural products and trade structure. The conclusion is that we must highly pay attention to the problem of climate warming, because the impact of climate warming on agricultural production and trade is significant.On this basis, this paper is about the impact of climate wanning on Chinese agricultural products import trade mainly from three aspects. The first part is the impact of climate warming on Chinese agricultural products import trade. Analyze the basic situation and characteristics of China’s agricultural products import trade, and analyze its impact through the gravity model. The empirical analysis results show that the temperature is inversely proportional to the Chinese agricultural import trade. Rising temperature increases the domestic agricultural product supply, thereby, reduces imports. The possible reason is that in a certain temperature, temperature rising is beneficial to agricultural production, which increase supply of agricultural products and reduces agricultural imports. But carbon dioxide is positively related to the function of Chinese agricultural import trade. The emission of carbon dioxide increases, and the greater Chinese agricultural import trade amount increases, in a certain extent, which can explain the current situation of the agricultural deficit for ten consecutive years emerging in China.The second aspect is the impact of climate warming on China’s agricultural imports structure. First analyze the related situation of structure of China’s agricultural imports, and then analyze the impact of climate warming on import structure of mechanism from the perspective of empirical. The article carries on the correlation analysis about the climate warming effect on wheat, soybeans and corn production, the return results show that the overall performance of relationship between temperature and the three kinds of agricultural products is negative. This may be mainly because of the temperature rising makes China crops graining yield decrease, such as wheat, soybeans and corn, thus benefit to imports. At the same time, the increase of CO2emissions is not conducive to crop growth and development, which makes the agricultural production and quality decline. The domestic supply of agricultural products to reduce increases the demand for agricultural products. Production layout, the quality and yield of crops in China are affected by climate warming. Type and quality of crop production has changed, which makes the comparative advantage products to obtain from import and makes the amount of the originally imported products imports to increase again. The change of domestic agricultural production type will affect China’s agricultural imports products.The third aspect is the impact of climate warming on the import prices of China’s agricultural products. First analyze the climate warming to the influence of Chinese agricultural products import price path, and analyze the influence of climate warming on agricultural product import prices from the imbalance of supply and demand. The results are that the temperature rising and carbon dioxide emissions increasing make the country supply to reduce and domestic demand to increase. Because,the diameter of Chinese agricultural import is very large, the price is volatile relatively large, and affects the import trade amount directly.The following is the suggestions of this paper:in order to deal with the change of global climate, China should reduce degree of dependence on export countries of agricultural import trade, deepening agricultural import trade market diversification strategy, and adjust the structure of Chinese agricultural import trade, and import domestic much-needed and affected by climate insufficient production of agricultural products more. In the meantime, China needs to continuously develop new import source countries and regions.