Research On Dynamic Mechanism Of Chongqing Urban Health System Based On System Dynamics Simulation

For these decades,the process of urbanization in China and abroad has been advancing at a rapid pace.As cities become more and more important living environments,the significance of improving the health of the urban environment is becoming increasingly obvious.In order to promote the healthy development of the global urban environment,the Healthy Cities Project aroused.Since the World Health Organization's initiative to build healthy cities,this project has rapidly spread and deepened in China and abroad,and the issue of improving urban health has received more and more attention.Chongqing has also participated in the construction of healthy cities.As an important municipality with a central city status in China,the optimization of its health level is of great significance.The measurement of the city's health indicator can reflect its health status,but it is the key to study the path to advance the city's health level by exploring the underlying mechanism of change and identifying the health dynamics that affect the city's health level.In the critical period of continuous advancement of urbanization and transformation of economic development mode,it is imperative to gain insight into the mechanism of urban healthy operation and explore the driving force to promote the healthy development of cities,which will help open up a good prospect for the healthy development of cities in Chongqing.First of all,the connotation and theoretical basis of healthy city are reviewed,the mode of action of the dynamic factors that influence the development of urban system is summarized.This research expounds the giant system perspective of exploring urban issues,and demonstrates its effectiveness and rationality in the context of urban health issues.Subsequently,literature on the urban health-related indicator system was extensively collected,from which the indicators with high citation value were selected to form a collection of 20 indicators of elements of Chongqing's urban health system.Based on the real macroeconomic data of Chongqing from 1998 to 2018,the principal component analysis(PCA)method was used to integrate the index into the subsystem of economic strength,social livelihood and ecological environment.In addition,combining the entropy weight method to determine the weight of indicators,found that the weight of each indicator shows a tendency of uniform distribution,GDP,per capita GDP and per capita public green area of key elements of urban health level,the abnormal value,and the crime rate index weight showed the healthy development of Chongqing city remains unstable factors.According to the weighted calculation,Chongqing's comprehensive level of urban health showed a trend of constant growth in the 21 years,and according to the local growth rate,three periods of urban health development can be divided into three periods.Based on the results of these empirical analyses,this study used Vensim software to draw the causal loop diagrams of three subsystems,and integrated them into the stock flow diagram of the urban giant system,and constructed the system dynamics model of Chongqing urban health system.Finally,according to the structure and characteristics of the model,this study sets up 12 dynamic factors and 12 sets of parameter adjustment schemes that express the simulation assumptions.The system operation status of Chongqing from 2018 to 2027 was simulated with the model according to each plan,and the urban health level under each plan was compared and analyzed.The results show that,among the endogenous driving forces,the acceleration of urban expansion,the agglomeration effect of population and the agglomeration effect of tertiary industry have a significant impact on the healthy development of a city.In terms of the effect of external intervention,the decentralized and balanced investment strategy is beneficial to the improvement of urban health level at least in the short term.The conclusion of this research confirm the importance of agglomeration,and show that in the case of limited total resources,centralized investment in a certain aspect is often not conducive to the long-term benefits of healthy urban development.After the above research,this paper mainly draws the following conclusions: First,Chongqing's urban health index has maintained a stable and sound development for a period of time,and the pattern of changes in factors has been unified;Second,Chongqing's urban health index is sensitive to changes in economic indicators,and its growth model still has space for optimization;Third,the effects of population agglomeration,tertiary industry agglomeration,urban expansion and income gap on the urbanization process are important influence factors for the urban health system of Chongqing;Forth,The macro-control of Chongqing's urban healthy development should not be overly concentrated on single aspect,and the healthy development of cities should mainly rely on the driving force of endogenous power.