The Simulation Study On The Private Car Demand In Zhengzhou City Based On System Dynamics

In recent years, the rapid development of China’s national economy has maintained steady. The car is no longer a luxury and begins to enter common people family, spread all over the country. On the one hand, there is some positive influence of rapid growth of auto demand, such as changing the urban spatial structure, expandingthe domestic demand, improving the living standards of residents,to promote economic development; on the other hand, the rapid growth of automobile demand also brings many negative effects, such as the urban traffic congestion, the energy shortage and the environmental pollution. The city’s private car development level is influenced by resource, population, economy, ecological environment and other aspects of factors, at the same time, it also affects the resource of a city, population, economy and ecological environment. The city’s infrastructure and facilities are limited. If the quantity of private car is more than the horizontal bearing capacity, it will lead to a series of problems, such as environmental pollution and the urban traffic congestion.Therefore, this paper aims at exploring more deeply the internal structure of demand system research of private cars based on the previous research, exploring the changes in demand of the private cars increase, forecasting its development trend, by using the system dynamics simulation model for evaluation of control effect of the existing policy on the private car demand. Through the model simulation analysis of the control of private car demand of the development, it is to design the related new policy that makes the private car market demand and the development of the economic society coordinated development.Taking Zhengzhou city as an example, retains the quantity analysis of urban private car development issues from the perspective of system dynamics. To explore the relationship of the influence of the private car demand factors by using the explanation structure model, we use the qualitative analysis, the analysis of their internal hierarchy, using the system dynamics modeling method, establishing the dynamic private car demand system model based on the VENSIM platform. Based on the historical statistical data, The simulation of private cars in Zhengzhou shows that the quantity maintains the development trend of quantity, to the Zhengzhou municipal government implemented the single and double limit policy and the expansion of Urban Road area of policy simulation, studied the effects of long-term implementation of the single and double limit policy and the expansion of urban area on the road of urban private car ownership in future changes produced, provides some policy suggestions for the reasonable control of the private car to retain the quantity. The model simulation results show that, in the private car demand at this stage of Zhengzhou city is at a stable growth rate and keeps rising, the need for the development trend needs attention and necessary control. The single and double limit policy and the expansion of City Road area policy can inhibit the residents of private car consumption demand in the short term, but in the long run, the influence is very small; and compared with the above two kinds of control policies, accelerating the rail transit construction, improving the orbit of passenger traffic volume growth rate of this policy can effectively limit the amount of private cars and over time, and will not have a negative impact, it is more scientific and reasonable regulation.