Research On The International Cooperation Fund Of Earthquake Catastrophe In The Belt And Road

The area along The Belt and Road is located in the Mediterranean-Himalayan Seismic Belt and the Pacific Rim Seismic Belt.It is one of the most frequent and most serious earthquake disasters in the world,but most of the areas in The Belt and Road are economically underdeveloped countries.The investment in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction is relatively small,the insurance loss compensation ability is insufficient,and the catastrophe risk dispersion method is relatively simple,which restricts the participation of countries in the construction of The Belt and Road construction.Therefore,it is of great strategic significance to seize the strategic opportunity of The Belt and Road and learn from the global and regional catastrophe risk dispersion model and actively promote the international cooperation of The Belt and Road regional earthquake catastrophe risk dispersion.In this paper,the methods of literature research,empirical research and qualitative and quantitative analysis are used to study the International Cooperation Fund for earthquake disaster.Firstly,this paper combs the domestic and international research status and related theories of earthquake catastrophe risk dispersion and catastrophe international cooperation fund.Secondly,This paper analyzes the feasibility and necessity of the establishment of The Belt and Road earthquake catastrophe international cooperation fund.Based on this,the operation mechanism of The Belt and Road earthquake catastrophe international cooperation fund was designed,including the fund's organizational structure,operational framework and operational management.Thirdly,BP neural network model and Va R method to calculate the initial scale of funds under different risk tolerance.When the risk tolerance is 99.5%,the size of the fund is 91.08 million US dollars,and when the risk tolerance is reduced to 99%,the size becomes 63.320 million US dollars.Under different risk tolerance,the size of the fund shows obvious differences.Subsequently,the factor analysis,cluster analysis and weighted average method were used to calculate the contribution rates of the three payment levels of countries A,B and C in the area along The Belt and Road,which were 45%,33% and 22% respectively.Based on this,the amount of contributions payable by different countries under different risk tolerance is calculated.Finally,this paper divides the loss compensation mechanism of The Belt and Road Earthquake Catastrophe Fund into five levels: the first,second level the first,secondlevel are when the earthquake catastrophe loss is less than $2.508 billion,which is jointly assumed by the insured and the direct insurer,where the Insured undertakes the following part of the deductible,and the direct insurer takes the deductible amount to$2.508 billion.The third level is the earthquake catastrophe loss between $2.508 and$4.448 billion.The fourth level is shared by the international reinsurance market when the earthquake catastrophe losses exceed $4.448 billion.The fifth,when the losses exceed $6.332 billion,governments act as final compensators.