Study On Emergency Management Of Ice And Snow Disasters In Winter Olympic Venues Based On Scenario Deduction

The competition venues of 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games are built in mountainous areas that far from urban,which are greatly affected by snow and ice disasters.The conventional security risk prevention and emergency plan for a single disaster is not sufficient to meet the requirements because of the following reasons: first,secondary induced disasters caused by snow and ice disasters are difficult to predict and control,resulting in complex and diverse emergency scenarios;besides,their occurrence mechanisms and evolution paths are not the same.This study taking the competition venues of the Winter Olympic Games as the research object,focuses on the occurrence and evolutionary process of ice and snow disaster.It is based on scenario deduction theory and combined with complex network and system dynamics.The study aims to find the key points and deficiencies of emergency management through risk analysis and improve the emergency capacity.Firstly,this study discusses the potential crisis events and conditions that trigger chain reaction under the snow and ice disasters from four aspects: personnel,architecture,lifeline system,and event broadcasting system.Secondly,an ice and snow disaster evolution network model for the Winter Olympic venues is constructed,in which the importance measurement of network node and the risk analysis of network structure evolution are used to identify the critical crisis events and key evolution chains of disaster evolution.Thirdly,a dynamic model for the evolution of ice and snow disasters in Winter Olympic venues is constructed.The model takes the hazard-affected body as the core,and comprehensively consider three factors including selfevolution,correlation coupling,and emergency response.In this study,a calculation experiment of the emergency response affecting the evolution path of the disaster is designed.Finally,the study selects the National Alpine Ski Center as an example to set up the scenario for the example application.A disaster evolution network diagram is constructed with a total of 32 crisis events,in which three types of emergency response capabilities of 0.1,0.3,and 0.5 are set up to conduct evolution path calculation experiments.The risk analysis shows that the blackout event has the highest network importance,and the self-circulation chain formed by traffic accidents and traffic jams has the highest risk level.Furthermore,strengthening the emergency recovery of the power system at the beginning of the disaster can effectively reduce the spread of the disaster.However,the impact of improving emergency response capacity on traffic system is small.Thus,it is necessary to proceed from the evolutionary structure,adjusting the impact of crisis events and reducing the risk and damage.Based on the analyses,suggested measures for the emergency management of the venue are put forward.This study about the emergency management of snow and ice disasters in the Winter Olympic venues can help decision makers to predict the occurrence and evolution of disasters,find out defects and provide strong interventions for key links in disaster evolution to reduce disaster losses and help the Winter Games hold successfully.