| High frequency,large intensity and wide distribution of earthquake disasters are the fundamental realities of China,which seriously threatens the safety of people’s lives and property.In the face of sudden earthquake disasters,earthquake emergency command personnel should have the ability to respond quickly,organize coordination and make decisive decisions.In recent years,earthquake emergency illation training aimd to test the emergency handling procedure and response capacity of the government has been paid more and more attention by governments and researchers at all levels.The investigation and evaluation of the earthquake disaster loss is an important part of earthquake emergency illation training,among that,the objectivity and responsibility of the scenario planning of the construction damage and the casualties directly decides the success of the earthquake emergency illation training.Therefore,this paper tries to import the “scenario planning” into the earthquake emergency illation training,and studies the objective optimization method of the main scenarios in the earthquake emergency illation training,aims to build the earthquake disasters scenarios more scientifically,responsibly,and veritably.The research has important significance to carry out earthquake emergency illation training effectively,improve the emergency managers` qualities and response abilities,and offer the government emergency rescue measures and post-disaster reconstruction suggestions scientifically and rationally.Based on the research objectives above,the main research work of this paper is as follows:1.Construct the objective deduction model of the scenario of direct economic loss of earthquake disastersIn this paper,an objective deduction model of the scenario of direct economic loss of earthquake disasters is constructed based on the historical earthquake scene database,with Bayesian network.Through the model,the conditional probabilities of the possible direct economic loss of the buildings and other constructions under different scenario earthquakes could be concluded,which could be applied to the building damage scenario planning in the earthquake disaster loss assessment illation training,turning the design of building survey points in the training more scientifically and reasonably.2.Construct the objective deduction model of the scenario of casualties of earthquake disastersIn this paper,an objective deduction model of the scenario of casualties of earthquake disasters is constructed by constraint linear least squares based on the existing earthquake casualties calculation models,considering both the accessibility of predictive parameters and the accuracy of the calculation models.Objective estimation model of death objective under different earthquake magnitudes are provided in this paper for the Southwest,Northwest and other region in China according to the geographic regional characteristics and magnitudes.This model could be applied to the earthquake disaster loss assessment illation training,making the prediction of the casualties more scientifically and reasonably.3.Construct the curve model of difficulty distribution of scenario information in earthquake disaster assessment trainingThe situation of earthquake disaster emergencies is divided into five levels,which are easy,fair easy,medium,difficult and more difficult.We use the binomial distribution function of discrete random variables to construct the degree of difficulty distribution curve model,the difficulty can be calculataed by a set of expectation averages of earthquake disaster emergencies.,so that the disaster assessment training organizers can control the degree of difficulty in deducting training according to the expected value,and realize the objectivity and rationality choice for the earthquake information scene.4.Construct an objective evaluation system of the main scenarios of earthquake disaster loss illation trainingBased on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),this paper constructs an objective evaluation system of the main scenarios of earthquake disaster loss illation training in combination with questionnaire survey and expert scoring.Which is used to evaluate the objectivity of the direct economic loss scenario and the analysis of the death rate of the personnel.5.The application of the scenario model in the earthquake disaster loss assessment illation trainingWith the objective deduction scenario models of direct economic loss and casualties of earthquake disasters,main scenarios of the 6.5-magnitude earthquake in shuangbai county,Yunnan province in the earthquake disaster loss assessment illation training have been constructed. |
