Quantitative Analysis Of Influence Of Meteorological Factors On Maize Production In Henan Province Based On Grey Model

China is the world's second largest maize producer and major consumer.Henan Province is one of China's major agricultural provinces.It is a large maize production province and consumer province.Summer maize planting plays an extremely important role in Henan's agricultural production.Compared with the main food crop wheat in Henan Province,the growth stage of summer maize(June-September)is shorter,but various agrometeorological disasters occur more frequently during this stage,which is extremely vulnerable to disasters such as drought,continuous rain and high wind lodging.The effects of drought appearing at the ritical time and rain during flowering stage are the greatest,which seriously threaten the high and stable yield of maize.Taking into account the influence of meteorological factors on maize production in Henan Province,meteorological data and yield data from 1990 to 2019 were selected to conduct the following parts of maize production in Henan Province.Maize growth cycle in Henan province was divided into different growth stages,and the meteorological factors affecting the maize growth in Henan province were selected to construct the index system.The meteorological data were expressed as interval grey number,and the correlation between meteorological factors and meteorological yield at different growth stages of maize in Henan province was described according to interval grey correlation degree,so as to find out the key meteorological factors that have a great influence on different growth stages of maize.The results showed that daily mean temperature and average relative humidity had a great influence on the growth of maize during the sowing to emergence stage.Average relative humidity and sunshine hours had great influence on the growth of maize during the emergence to jointing stage.Average relative humidity and daily minimum temperature had great influence on the growth of maize during the jointing to heading stage.Daily maximum temperature and average relative humidity had great influence on the growth of maize during heading to milky maturity stage.Daily maximum temperature and sunshine hours had great influence on the growth of maize during the milky maturity to mature stage.The three-dimensional dynamic grey correlation model based on entropy weight method was used to explore the agricultural development status of various cities in Henan Province.Overall grasp the changes in the agricultural development levels of various cities in Henan Province in different periods,and analyze the differences in agricultural development levels of different cities.The agricultural development level of various cities in Henan Province is as follows:Nanyang City,Zhoukou City,and Zhumadian City have higher agricultural development levels;Pingdingshan City,Sanmenxia City,and Luohe City have relatively low agricultural development levels.Then,the DEA model is used to evaluate the meteorological efficiency of maize in Henan province.In addition,the DEA-malmquist index model was used to evaluate production efficiency of maize in Henan province.The research shows that there is no direct relationship between the agricultural development level in various cities in Henan Province and production efficiency of maize in Henan Province.Meteorological efficiency of maize in various regions of Henan Province is fluctuating and rising,and the input slack of maize production factors in Henan province is in the state of gradual optimization.In addition,the average meteorological efficiency of maize in western Henan is the highest.The overall meteorological efficiency of maize of Xuchang City,Pingdingshan City,and Zhengzhou City in central Henan is relatively high.However,the overall meteorological efficiency of Nanyang City,Zhumadian City,Xinyang City,and Xinxiang City and Anyang City in northern Henan is not much different.The overall meteorological efficiency in eastern Henan is the lowest and the meteorological efficiency fluctuates the most.Based on grey GM(1,1)model and markov model,the occurrence of maize continuous rain during florescence and filling stage and drought disasters during maize growth period in Henan province was predicted.The results show that maize in Henan Province will suffer large-scale continuous rain disaster during florescence and filling stage in 2020 and 2021,and 2020 and 2021 will be continuous rain years.Starting from the year of the last general drought during growth period of maize in eastern Henan,southern Henan and northern Henan,general drought may occur again after 4 years.Starting from the year of the last general drought during growth period of maize in central Henan,general drought may occur again after 2 years.Starting from the last general drought year during growth period of maize in western Henan,general drought may occur again after 5 years.In addition,a system dynamic model of maize production in Henan province based on meteorological factors was constructed,which dynamically simulated the effects of various meteorological factors on maize production in Henan Province,and provided a theoretical basis for ensuring stable and increased maize production in Henan Province.