Quantitative Analysis Of The Effects Of Meteorological Factors On Grain Production Based On Grey Model

"Hunger breeds discontentment,taking grain as the country".Agriculture plays an important role in the development of the national economy.Developing modern agriculture is also a key task in building a new socialist countryside,and agrometeorology is one of the important factors affecting modern agricultural production.It is the important basis for judging whether the agricultural structure adjustment is reasonable or not.Meteorological conditions play a crucial role in grain growth.Meteorological factors affect grain growth at different growth stages of grain production,and ultimately affect grain yield.Therefore,it is very important to explore the influence of meteorological factors on grain production,and to find out the problems existing in the process of grain production due to meteorological factors,and to take timely measures and make corresponding adjustments.To Henan province and even the whole country grain stable yield high yield provides the substantive theory basis.Based on the grey attribute of agricultural system and meteorological system,the relationship between grain production and meteorological factors in Henan province is studied quantitatively by using the theory and method of grey system.The concept of meteorological efficiency is put forward and the evaluation model of meteorological efficiency of grain production in Henan province is constructed.Finally,the trend of meteorological disaster in grain production period is forecasted and analyzed.In order to explore the influence of meteorological factors on the yield of winter wheat,the growth period of winter wheat was divided into nine growth stages according to the phonological map of winter wheat in Huanghuaihai.Based on the yield data and daily average meteorological data of winter wheat in Henan province from 2005 to 2015,the meteorological yield of winter wheat was calculated by exponential smoothing method.The meteorological factors set and the grey relational analysis model were established,and the influence degree of meteorological factors on yield was analyzed by double quantification in different growth stages of winter wheat in Henan province.The results showed that in single analysis,the average relative humidity had the greatest effect on the growth of winter wheat during sowing stage,tillering stage,overwintering stage and filling stage;The average wind speed had the greatest impact on the growth of winter wheat during the period of turninggreen stage,jointing stage and maturing stage;In the seedling stage the average daily temperature had the greatest effect on the growth of winter wheat;The duration of illumination was the most important to the growth of winter wheat at heading stage.In the double quantitative analysis,the meteorological factors influencing the whole growth period of winter wheat were the average relative temperature and the daily maximum temperature at the seedling stage,the average relative humidity at the tillering stage and the overwintering stage,and the mean wind speed at the jointing stage.Through quantitative analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and yield in different growth stages of winter wheat,it is clear which meteorological factors have a influence on the growth of winter wheat at different growth stages,and which meteorological factors have relatively weak impact on the growth of winter wheat.Secondly,on the basis of the research on the efficiency of agricultural production,the concept of agrometeorological efficiency was put forward in order to explore the extent of the contribution of meteorological factors on the yield of crops at different growth stages.Then the study selects the yield data and daily average meteorological data of winter wheat in Henan province from 2011 to 2016 and uses the exponential smoothing method to calculate the meteorological yield of winter wheat,and finally establishes.the input and output index system of agricultural meteorological factors.At the same time,in order to weaken the influence of the random error,the grey DEA model is used to make an empirical study on the agrometeorological efficiency of Henan province.The results showed that the average agro-meteorological efficiency in Henan province showed a steady growth trend,of which the highest in northern Henan,followed by the eastern Henan and southern Henan,the lower is the central Henan and western Henan.Finally,according to the characteristics of the meteorological efficiency,the corresponding measures are provided to improve grain yield.Finally,considering the relationship between the damage of meteorological disaster factor degree to grain yield,the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined from the time dimension and the space dimension,respectively.The temporal and spatial evolution of dry hot wind disasters in five regions of Henan province from 2000 to 2017 and the occurrence of major droughts in Henan province from 1990 to 2015 are studied and analyzed.Based on these data,a model for predicting the occurrence of dry hot wind disasters and drought disasters in Henan province is established.The change trend of meteorological disaster factors in grain production is analyzed.