| Strategies for reducing the burden of influenza have commonly focused on altered vaccination distribution, quarantine, and travel restrictions. Mathematical models examining these factors are not fully realized, as they do not temporally account for a threshold of social contact, or a point at which the sum of all contacts in all age groups facilitates increased disease transmission. Rather, these models approach containment measures by addressing this threshold as constant, rather than experimentally adjusting fluidity. In the United States, flu season typically begins soon after children return to school from summer recess, suggesting there may be a relationship between the timing of increase in contact between children and increased transmission. In this novel approach, we simulate an influenza epidemic in a deterministic SEIR model accounting for this threshold of social contact. This is facilitated by comparing a traditional school year with year round school tracks and school closures. Our findings suggest that year-round school can reduce the burden of influenza by 96.56%, reducing over 400,000 deaths and 69 million cases during pandemic influenza. This suggests that year-round school has the potential to attenuate flu transmission. Moreover, previous studies have found year-round school to be more cost-effective than a traditional school year, meaning that if nationally implemented, costs would be reduced while reducing cases of disease. |
