| lternative vehicles have significant potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum consumptions. There are many types of alternative vehicles on the path including fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). PHEV is a near-term option with the potential to displace a significant portion of the transportation petroleum consumption, perhaps reducing automotive greenhouse gas emissions by 27% based on current technology. A key benefit of PHEVs is that this type of alternative vehicles is not dependent on a single fuel source. The key barrier to the commercialization of PHEVs and other alternative vehicles remains the relatively high manufacturing cost and cost uncertainties of these vehicles compared to conventional vehicles.;The purpose of this thesis is to develop an engineering cost model of alternative vehicles, focused specifically on PHEVs. There are two aspects to the model development---a bottom-up cost model for the electric motor, which is a key component in the PHEV powertrain and an overall model of the HEV and PHEV powertrain system. An Excel-based model is built to calculate the total motor cost step by step based on the motor raw materials, labor, utilities and capital cost. The Crystal Ball software package is used for single-variable and multi-variable sensitivity analyses of the baseline motor cost. Key input parameters are identified and used in this model. Second, the bottom-up cost model is applied to a baseline PHEV powertrain system. The Crystal Ball is again used to perform cost sensitivity analyses for the overall PHEV powertrain system. Finally, comparison of the baseline PHEV and HEV powertrain system components costs are made in order to identify the key powertrain components that dominate costs and cost uncertainties.;The unit price of motor raw materials, such as that of copper, NdFeB and steel, is the critical factor in the overall motor cost. As such, reducing cost uncertainties and total use values for these raw materials should be the focus of future development. The NiMH battery is the most dominant and uncertain cost factor in the overall PHEV powertrain system. Quantitatively, the NiMH battery cost uncertainty is... |
