New Energy Automotive Industry Risk Research,

The energy which has a close bearing on the national economy and the people's livelihood is a world-wide problem. The automobile which is an important symbol to reflect the economy and society development of human can benefit offspring. Energy and automobile which depend on and be for each other are the momentum and carrier of modern civilization. The basic energy situation of our country is rich coal, badly off petroleum , exiguous natural gas and the main body of energy consumption is coal. The automobile industry development is not Sustainable because this energy situation can't meet the rapid development of automobile industry development. The recent ten years, though the Alternative Fuel Vehicle of our country grows out of nothing and makes a lot of breakthrough, the ubiquitous deep-seated problem especially the industrialized problem are not settled well.Based on the result of predecessor studies, especially the result of the researchful group of Center for Energy Research of Fudan University, I have studied some important problems, especially the problem of risk identified, risk evaluation and risk hedging carefully in the course of Alternative Fuel Vehicle industrialization development. Based on drawing experience from developed countries, I use the theory and method of statistics, economics and management to research the relationship between Alternative Fuel Vehicle and technology, economy, society as well as politics. All this aim to sum up the basic rule and principle, to take apart the problems and reasons,to expound the new situation and new opportunity, to bring forward the stratagem and main assignment of Alternative Fuel Vehicle industrialization development.The problem of Alternative Fuel Vehicle industrialization development concern a lot of subjects and fields. This is a very complicated problem which contain many variables and answers. Though We have made some breakthrough and innovation compared with agone research, this paper is only a beginning and a phasic achievement, we still have a lot of problems to research.The paper can be taken in to three big parts: research foundation and basical principle, theory analysis and empirical study, basical conclusion and policy advice.The part of research foundation and basical principle mainly contains first three chapters and this part is the foundation of the whole paper. In this part, I sum up and concentrate the previous research achievement of my research team and other predecessors. On the basis of clarifying the meaning of this paper, I introduced the research method, the overall framework and mainly innovation. I also demarcate the signification of some conceptions which concerned with Alternative Fuel Vehicle, clarify some basical problems, and the mostly important is I analyse the meaning of application of risk theory in the analysis of industrialization. This is the foundation of identify risk in the course of Alternative Fuel Vehicle industrialization development and very important to design evaluation index to evaluate these risk.The part of theory analysis and empirical study mainly contains chapter 4 and chapter 5 is the core sustaining of the whole paper. In Alternative Fuel Vehicle field, such as Carbinol, DME and Hydrogen car, the gap is not as big as in traditional vehicle field, even in some fields, the technology of our country is first-class in the world. So ,the development of Alternative Fuel Vehicle industry is a great opportunity to promote the great-leap-forward development of our country's Vehicle industry.To promote the development of Alternative Fuel Vehicle, We have to breakthrough technical difficulties, We need to raise a lot of money to cover the heavy cost of technology research and development and to cover the cost of infrastructure development and market demand extension, We also need to make Alternative Fuel Vehicle acquire competitive advantageous as to traditional vehicle. If we can't achieve these, he development of Alternative Fuel Vehicle will be confronted with huge risk. In this paper, I classify the risk in the course of Alternative Fuel Vehicle industrialization development in to five kinds: technology risk, market risk, resource risk, policy risk and system risk. I also casssify each kind of risk in to more detail aspect from different angle. On the basis of upwards analysis, I set up an evaluation index system of these risk and use AHP method and Fuzzy Comprehensive Appraisal model to make a case study In chapter 5.The part of basical conclusion and policy advice mainly contains chapter 6 is the original creation and key point of the paper. The material crisis of china's energy will arise in about twenty or thirty years later, at that time, the gross energy consumption of our country will be the same as America and this situation must produce great impact on the pattern of international energy, especially petroleum distribution. So in this paper, taking into account the complexity and changing long-playing of transportation energy, we emphasize that we should take advanced action with regard to any new technology and new system research, Operation demonstration and industrialization. otherwise, it will make great damage to our country's Alternative Fuel Vehicle development. China is the most potential and most burgeoning automobile market, the infrastructure and development mode are not completely finalized the design. So, choosing the technical course which we have comparative advantage, the Alternative Fuel Vehicle industrialization development of our country is more realistic, more expediently and more economically than developed country.