Research On Investment Decision Of Characteristic Town Under PPP Mode

The characteristic town originated from foreign countries,flourished in Zhejiang and thrived in the Yangtze River Delta.Nowadays it has spread rapidly across the country and has gradually become an important driving force for China's industrial transformation and upgrading.Under the circumstance of the government financial shortage and the emerging drawbacks of the traditional construction model,the PPP model has become a new boost for the characteristic towns.Nevertheless,China has not yet possessed adequate experience in characteristic town project under PPP model,and the features of long project cycle and considerable investment have resulted in various risks for involved social capital.Therefore,in the case of coexisting risks and benefits,how to make a correct investment decision concerning the characteristic town PPP project for social capital is an issue worthy of attention.Firstly,the present thesis expounds the concept and characteristics of PPP mode and characteristic towns,and puts forward the necessity and feasibility of adopting PPP mode in characteristic towns.Secondly,the investment risk factors of the characteristic town PPP project from two aspects of life cycle theory and risk source are identified,and the investment risk index system is revised and optimized through questionnaires and factor analysis.The final investment risk index system including five aspects is established,namely politics,management,market,finance and environment.Thirdly,according to the principle of PPP project risk allocation,five preliminary share risk evaluation index including risk control ability,risk commitment willingness,risk bearing ability,risk control cost and risk expected benefit are determined.By means ofthe initial decision matrix of risk sharing obtained through the expert scoring method,and with the aid of GRA-TOPSIS method,the main risk factors of social capital in the characteristic town PPP project are judged.The internal rate of return(IRR)is selected as the evaluation index of social capital investment decision-making,and the investment decision model is constructed by Monte Carlo method.Finally,taking Hangzhou XXX agricultural characteristic town as an example,on the basis of the main risk factors of social capital,using the investment decision model,it is concluded that the project is feasible without considering risk factors,but not feasible due to the lower investment yield guarantee rate under the influence of risk factors,and the annual growth rate of tourist population,initial annual passenger quantity,and operating cost are key risk factors affecting project revenue.Based on the expected return of social capital,these three key factors are simulated separately,and the feasible boundary conditions of the project investment are determined through the risk-benefit equilibrium distribution,which provides theoretical methods and reference for social capital investment decision-making and negotiation with the government.