Research On The Risk Aad Investment Decision Of Industrial New Town Under The PPP Mode

With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in China,as an important development tendency of new type urbanization,the new industrial town plays an important role in satisfying the people's work and the industrial upgrading.But for its long construction period and large amount of capital investment which keep a financial pressure of our government,PPP model is introduced into the construction of industrial new town with its unique advantages,which makes the financial pressure transfer to social capital,so the model is paid great attention by local government.But PPP model is mainly used in infrastructure construction in China,the introduction of PPP model in the construction of industrial new town is relatively short,and it has higher risk in the construction.The thesis,from the perspective of social capital,will analyze its risk factors by taking G County Industrial new town project as the research object;determines the investment boundary conditions under the influence of different risks,and then provides the basis for the investment decision.First of all,identify key risk factors.The risk factors of G country industrial town PPP project were identified through research and literature study.Besides,the final 20 risk factors and an investor risk index system for the industrial new town under the PPP model were determined by questionnaire to comb out the internal structure of its risk factors.After that the matter-element model was constructed to analyze and evaluate the 20 risk factors,and get the key risk factors which affect the investment decision of the project.Secondly,determine investment boundary conditions.Combined with related data and industry information of G County Industrial PPP project,the capital asset pricing model(CAPM)was used to calculate the benchmark return level of industrial real estate industry(Re).Then probability distribution of four risk factors which can be quantified was predicted.Also the Monte Carlo simulation is used to know the change of net present value and internal rate of return under different risks.Compared with(Re),the boundary condition of investment is calculated.Finally,develop investment decision support system.The C#language and SQLServer2012 database were used for H Company to develop PPP project investment decision support system,the application of this system in H company PPP project provides support and reference for company investment decision.