| Export trade and foreign direct investment are two important ways for a country to integrate into international economic and social activities.With the complex economic environment at home and abroad,the development of China’s foreign trade is facing severe challenges and increasing pressure,and the transformation and upgrading of trade structure is imminent.In this context,China has carried out a comprehensive strategic layout with a high prospect.Internally,with "supply side reform" as a breakthrough,we will tap the new potential of economic growth through comprehensive institutional reform and innovation.Externally,with the "One Belt,One Road" as a traction,the "two-wheel drive" model of "organizing the combination of investment and trade and driving investment with investment" actively promotes the "going out" strategy.From the perspective of "going out" strategy,its focus has shifted from the traditional single trade driven model to the two-wheel driven collaborative model supported by trade and investment.Therefore,under the background of the “Belt and Road” strategy,China ’s relevance of OFDI and export trade in the countries along the route exactly fits this practical need.Firstly,this paper constructs an index to measure the correlation between OFDI and export trade by comparing the dominant comparative advantage of OFDI and export trade,and measures the correlation between OFDI and export trade between China and 61 countries along the line in 2009-2018.From the perspective of the income level of the countries along the belt and road,the correlation between China’s OFDI and export trade to the countries along the belt and road is higher in middle-income countries than in high-income countries and low-income countries,but with the development of the economy,the correlation between China’s OFDI and export trade is gradually narrowing.Through the analysis of the country selection of countries along the line with high degree of connection between OFDI and export trade,we can see that China has a high degree of connection in middle-income countries with rich labor force represented by ASEAN countries,and in countries with rich natural resources represented by West Asia and North Africa countries.The dominant comparative advantage of OFDI shows an upward trend,narrowing the gap with the dominant comparative advantage of export trade.Secondly,on the basis of theoretical analysis,this article uses the trade gravity model to construct the corresponding panel data model to empirically analyze the correlation between China ’s OFDI and export trade along the “Belt and Road” countries,and classify the countries along the line according to the degree of economic development Sample research.Empirical research shows that,on the whole,China ’s OFDI has a significant positive effect on export trade to countries along the “Belt and Road”,but it does not have a significant impact in high-income countries and low-income countries.The correlation nature of export trade differs significantly in countries with different income levels.Then,this paper constructs a econometric model including market size,labor cost,resource endowment,geographical distance,institutional environment,trade facilitation,bilateral real exchange rate and other core factors with the correlation between China’s OFDI and export trade as the dependent variable.From the overall study and classification study,this paper analyzes and evaluates the contribution of the above factors to the change of OFDI and export trade association of the countries along the line and the interaction of various factors,and further analyzes the internal causes and formation mechanism of the relationship between OFDI and export trade of the countries along the line.Studies have shown that the market size,labor costs,natural resource endowments,high-tech endowments,geographic distance,trade facilitation,and bilateral real exchange rates of countries along the “Belt and Road” are all factors that affect China ’s OFDI and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road”.The important factors of trade relevance and their effects are significantly different in different types of countries.The impact of the institutional environment,trade barriers,infrastructure,trade freedom and whether or not to sign a free trade zone agreement is not significant.Finally,on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research,we put forward targeted policies and suggestions on how to enhance the relevance of OFDI and export trade of countries along the “Belt and Road”. |
