Research On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes On China's Trade With The Belt And Road Countries

As one of the three major carriages driving economic growth,foreign trade has always been a key area of academic research,and the exchange rate has received a lot of attention from the academic community.As the reform of the RMB exchange rate system continues to deepen,the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is becoming more market-oriented and flexible.In September 2013,China put forward the “One Belt One Road” initiative.From the perspective of China's trade with countries along the “Belt and Road” in recent years,both the total trade volume and the share of trade show an increasing trend,and the trade structure is constantly adjusted and upgraded.In this context,it is of practical significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the trade between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road”.This article studies through theoretical analysis,statistical analysis,empirical analysis,comparative analysis and other methods.First of all,the literature analysis method is used to sort out the relevant literature on the impact of exchange rate changes on trade,and to clarify the research direction and method of this article;secondly,through the statistical analysis of the import and export trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road",the "Belt and Road" initiative is outlined Under the trade development trend of China and the countries along the route;use relevant economics and trade theory to analyze the transmission mechanism of exchange rate's impact on trade,determine the empirical analysis model and related variables;and finally conduct empirical analysis of the model under overall and different conditions,Draw relevant conclusions.The study has obtained the following conclusions:(1)The empirical RMB exchange rate coefficients for imports are negative and exports are positive.This conclusion is inconsistent with traditional trade theory,but it is consistent with the actual trade situation in China and the empirical results of most scholars.(2)From the perspective of the exchange rate reform,the RMB exchange rate has a more significant impact on imports under a more flexible exchange rate system;the RMB exchange rate coefficient of exports has been reduced after the exchange rate reform,and the effect of the appreciation of local currency on exports in the elasticity theory is the flexible exchange rate system.(3)Looking at trade objects with different income levels,the lower the income,the weaker the negative relationship between the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate for imports and the stronger the positive relationship for exports,which may be related to the trade structure between China and countries with different income levels.The innovations of this paper are:(1)Discuss the differences between countries along the “Belt and Road” by categories,and analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on trade balances from the perspective of income levels;(2)The model is based on the special conditions of China and expanded with considering whether the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the reform of the exchange rate system in 2005 will affect the bilateral trade between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road”.