Research On The Impact Of Cross-border E-commerce Development Level On China's Export Trade

In recent years,China 's labor costs have risen significantly,the international market demand has fallen into sluggishness,and the growth rate of export trade has slowed.Under the situation of relatively low levels of trade tariffs,the traditional method of expanding exports by reducing tariffs has been hindered,and new foreign trade is urgently needed Growth drivers.With the development of Internet technology,cross-border e-commerce has developed rapidly as a new trade model,which plays a pivotal role in China's export trade and has become a new growth point for China's export trade.At the same time,under the unfavorable situation of constant Sino-US trade friction and rising protectionism,actively strengthening regional cooperation to optimize the export structure and promoting the diversification of export regions are the top priorities of China's foreign trade work.Therefore,"how to seize the new trade model of cross-border e-commerce,improve China's export trade level,cultivate new momentum of foreign trade growth,and provide decision-making basis for the promotion of China's cross-border e-commerce development" has become a foreign trade under the new situation.The new topic,it is particularly important to study the path and direction of the impact of the development level of cross-border e-commerce on export trade.This article takes ten ASEAN countries as a research sample,and studies the impact of cross-border e-commerce development level on export trade from both theoretical and empirical aspects.First of all,this paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature from the three aspects of the development status of cross-border e-commerce,the construction of an indicator system for the development level of cross-border e-commerce,and the trade effects of cross-border e-commerce.The entry point for this article.Theoretical analysis is carried out from four perspectives: trade facilitation theory,transaction cost theory,trade intermediation theory,and trade risk theory,and the development level of crossborder e-commerce is introduced into the monopolistic competition model.The influence mechanism of cross-border e-commerce on exports is analyzed.A mathematical model was established with a cross-border e-commerce correction index to determine a country's exports.Then,based on the cross-border e-commerce transaction link,an indicator system for measuring the development level of crossborder e-commerce in a country was constructed from nine secondary indicators at three levels: Internet information technology foundation,customs clearance efficiency and logistics efficiency.According to the relevant data obtained from the National Research Network database,the principal component analysis method was used to calculate the cross-border e-commerce development level index between China and the ten ASEAN countries from 2009 to 2017.Finally,based on the mathematical model used to determine exports based on the previous analysis,the cross-border e-commerce development level index of the ten ASEAN countries was used as the core explanatory variable,and the expanded trade gravity model was used to add GDP,population,distance,tariff levels,and borders.Controlled variables,empirical analysis of the impact of cross-border e-commerce development level on China's export trade using fixed-effect regression methods,and three methods of changing the sample interval,changing variables,and considering hysteresis for robustness testing were introduced in the benchmark model The interaction between the transaction costs and the development level of cross-border e-commerce will be tested by corresponding mechanisms.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis results,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The level of cross-border e-commerce development in the ten ASEAN countries is generally low,and the gap between countries is large.(2)The development level of cross-border e-commerce can significantly promote the growth of China's export trade.(3)The level of weighted tariffs on manufactured goods in importing countries has a greater impact on China's export trade than the level of weighted tariffs on primary goods.(4)The level of cross-border e-commerce development affects export trade through the channel of reducing transaction costs.Proposed corresponding policy recommendations based on research conclusions:(1)Reasonably allocate resources and reduce regional development gaps.(2)Comprehensively improve the development level of China's cross-border e-commerce and accelerate the "Internet + foreign trade" strategic process.(3)Optimize export structure and reduce transaction costs.(4)Improve relevant laws and regulations on cross-border e-commerce and control trade risks.