An Analysis On The Efficiency Evaluation And Influence Factors Of The Inbound Tourism Industry In China Under The Background Of The "Belt And Road"

Developing inbound tourism is a significant approach for China to transform from a big tourism country to a world tourism power,and the Belt and Road initiative has a direct and profound meaning for promoting the development of inbound tourism in China.In order to carry out an in-depth research on the efficiency and its influence factors of the inbound tourism industry in China under the background of the Belt and Road,in this paper,by taking the inbound tourism industry of the 31 provincial administrative regions in China mainland（hereinafter referred to as“provinces”）as the research objects,and the years of 2009²018are selected as the investigation period for empirical analysis.First,divide the 31 provinces into the regions along and not along the domestic route of“the Belt and Road”based on Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21^st-Century Maritime Silk Road,the strategic planning document of“the Belt and Road”initiative as issued by the state.The regions along the route include 18 provinces which are further divided into northeast region,northwest region,southwest region,southeast region and inland region based on the planning contents;second,use the industrial capital of inbound tourism,production labor force and industrial scale as the input variable,and the number of inbound tourists and inbound tourism income as the output variable;the efficiency of inbound tourism industry from China’s provincial and regional level is evaluated by quantifying the environment factor and random factor that influence the inbound tourism industry efficiency of all provinces using three-stage DEA method,calculating the industrial efficiency after deleting environment factor and random factor and by considering the changes of Malmquist series indexes in measuring production efficiency.Afterwards,the Panel Tobit Model is adopted to regress the industrial efficiency of the provincial regions,explore influence factors,and then analyze the function mechanism;Finally,countermeasures on improving the industrial efficiency of inbound tourism are put forward according to the research results,the shortcomings of this paper are reflected and the research prospect is proposed.The main research results are as follows:1.China’s business environment is generally beneficial to the development of inbound tourism industry.From the perspective of all provinces’business environment,Guangdong is most capable of transforming industrial capital and scale and Ningxia is most capable of transforming industrial labor force;from the regional perspective,southeast region is in favor of transforming industrial capital and scale the most;inland region could transform industrial labor force most favorably.2.The provinces taking the lead in terms of the average efficiency of inbound tourism industry include Guangdong,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Shanghai and Fujian,all of the above,except for Jiangsu,are within the regions along“the Belt and Road”route.The order of average industrial efficiency is southeast region>inland region>regions not along the route>southwest region>northeast region>northwest region;3.The average total factor productivity index of China’s 31 provinces is above 1 and the inbound tourism industry is in progress commonly.The order of total factor productivity index is inland region>northwest region>southwest region>regions not along the route>northeast region>southeast region.4.After the Belt and Road initiative is proposed,the efficiency of inbound tourism industry in China has increased,and the growth rates of both the industrial efficiency and total factor productivity index of the regions along the Belt and Road are higher than the ones of regions not along the Belt and Road.5.Regression analysis outcome:Ecological environment,social governance,the achievements of“the Belt and Road”,tourist communications,talent cultivation,development of sports and recreation industry and information technology could enhance the inbound industrial efficiency.However,due to China’s incomplete tourism market order,inadequate regulation,consumer fraud and cutthroat competition at present,the agglomeration of tourism industry hinders the enhancement of the efficiency of inbound tourism industry.